The cost of trucking goods from China to Russia has jumped 15–25 percent in a month, logistics firms report, as a fuel crisis triggered by Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries ripples through supply chains. The rate for a full truckload from Shanghai to Moscow climbed from around 730,000–750,000 roubles in April to 1.05–1.1 million roubles by mid-July, while the Mantsuria–Novolipetsk route surged from 900,000 roubles on 5 July to 1.15 million roubles two days later. Carriers say the daily price increment is now 10,000–20,000 roubles and that spare capacity has all but vanished.

The immediate driver is not the price of diesel alone—though it has reached 77–90 roubles a litre on international routes—but the time lost to queues. At the Zabaikalsk border crossing, a “green corridor” gives priority passage to fuel tankers during morning and evening windows, creating a two-tier queue that has stretched transit time to Moscow by 23 percent, to 10–12 days. Daily truck mileage on the Asian leg has fallen from 600–700 km to 500 km, and each day of idling costs a carrier 13,000–15,000 roubles. The squeeze is forcing importers to shift cargo to rail and sea, where container rates have risen by $150–250 and $100–400 respectively, extending the price pressure across all modes.

Russian officials have responded by importing fuel from Belarus and Kazakhstan and by ramping up production of lower-grade oil products. The transport ministry in Moscow says it does not expect significant disruption to Chinese imports during the high season. Yet logistics executives warn that the fuel shortages are most acute in southern and border regions, and that rates are likely to keep climbing at least until the end of summer.

Viewed from Beijing, the oil shock is playing out differently. China’s own fuel demand is falling even as road freight and holiday travel hit records, because roughly half the country’s 1.3 million taxis are now electric and ride-hailing giant Didi reports that EVs account for 75 percent of all mileage on its platform. Gasoline consumption dropped 10 percent and diesel 14 percent year-on-year in May, and oil imports collapsed 41 percent in June, helping to free up cargoes in a war-constrained global market. J.P. Morgan analyst Natasha Kaneva notes that the conflict may have accelerated behavioural shifts that leave China structurally less dependent on oil than markets have assumed, though the bank still expects gasoline demand to decline more slowly in 2027.