Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared on Wednesday that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed to shipping linked to the US-led blockade until Washington ceases what it termed “acts of aggression,” and signalled that other regional oil and gas export routes could be shut. The statement, carried by state television and the Tasnim news agency, followed a new wave of American air strikes on Iranian military positions near the strait and the reimposition of a naval blockade on vessels travelling to and from Iranian ports. The IRGC warned that “oil and gas exports from the region will either be available for everyone or for no one,” raising the spectre of a wider disruption to global energy supplies.

Viewed from Tehran, the closure is a direct response to the US military campaign and the blockade, which the IRGC described as “malign actions” that have cut off Indian Ocean export routes and endangered the interests of America’s economic rivals. Iranian state media reported that the Guards had also struck US military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait, and launched a drone attack on a base in Jordan hosting American warplanes. From Washington, US Central Command said its strikes were designed to “degrade Iran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping and civilian crews,” while President Donald Trump warned that next week’s operations would target power plants and bridges if Iran did not return to negotiations. US officials have consistently rejected Tehran’s assertion that it controls navigation through the strait, insisting international shipping lanes remain open.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow chokepoint between Iran and Oman, normally carries about one-fifth of the world’s seaborne crude oil and a significant share of liquefied natural gas. Its prolonged closure would have immediate consequences for global energy prices, fuel costs and maritime supply chains, analysts in London and Singapore note. The IRGC’s threat to close additional export routes that serve US and allied interests, though unspecified, compounds the uncertainty. The conflict has already spilled beyond the strait: air-raid sirens sounded in Bahrain, and Kuwait and Jordan reported intercepting drones and missiles fired from Iran, underscoring the regional dimension of the escalation.

The current flare-up dates to late February, when US and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered a cycle of retaliation that has repeatedly disrupted Hormuz traffic. A ceasefire framework signed on 17 June collapsed last week after Trump accused Tehran of continuing attacks on vessels and formally ended the agreement. Washington has since deployed more than 50,000 troops to the Middle East with the stated aim of reducing Iran’s military capabilities. With Trump issuing an ultimatum for talks and the IRGC vowing to sustain its “retaliatory operations,” no diplomatic off-ramp is in sight. The dossier now hinges on whether the US widens its strikes next week and whether Iran makes good on its threat to choke off other energy arteries.