Gold prices extended their recovery on Thursday, with spot gold rising 0.9% to $4,064.41 per ounce after touching its highest since 23 June in the previous session. The rally was triggered by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks at the ECB forum in Portugal, where he said inflation expectations and risks had eased in recent weeks, and by a softer-than-expected ADP private payrolls report that showed 98,000 jobs added in June against forecasts of 118,000.

Warsh’s less hawkish tone, while reiterating the Fed’s commitment to its 2% inflation target, reduced market anxiety over an imminent rate hike. Higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, so any signal that the central bank might delay tightening supports gold. The ADP data reinforced this narrative, suggesting the labour market may be cooling, which could temper wage-driven inflation pressures. Simultaneously, oil prices fell for a third day after Iran and the US concluded indirect talks focused on the Strait of Hormuz, easing energy-cost fears that had stoked inflation expectations.

The precious metal had snapped a two-day losing streak on Wednesday, and the upward momentum continued in Asian and early European trading. Silver, platinum and palladium also advanced. In Tehran, local gold and coin prices reached new highs, reflecting both the global trend and domestic currency dynamics. Central banks resumed net buying in May, adding 41 tonnes to official reserves, according to the World Gold Council, providing an additional layer of support. Traders now price a roughly 62–64% chance of a Fed rate hike by September, according to the CME FedWatch tool, down from earlier fears of a more aggressive move.

The market’s immediate focus turns to the US nonfarm payrolls report for June, due later on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters expect an increase of 110,000 jobs, down from 172,000 in May. Analysts in London note that a notably weak payrolls figure could push gold towards $4,250, though it would not be enough to reverse the bearish trend, while a print above 100,000 would likely sustain rate-hike expectations and leave bullion vulnerable to deeper declines. The data will be the next factual milestone shaping the near-term trajectory of the metal.