Brazil’s Treasury has issued its starkest warning yet on the trajectory of public finances, projecting that the federal government will fail to meet its primary result targets from 2028 through 2030 without new revenue or spending measures. In its latest Fiscal Projections Report, the Treasury estimates that even with automatic spending freezes of around R$60–70 billion annually, the primary balance will fall below the lower bound of the fiscal target in each of those years. The report calculates that the next presidential administration, which takes office in 2027, will need to find additional fiscal effort equivalent to 1.2% of GDP on average over the coming decade, as mandatory expenditures—especially pensions and the BPC social benefit—grow at a real rate of 3.5–5.6% per year, steadily compressing discretionary spending and investment.

In Buenos Aires, the government of President Javier Milei sent an advance of its 2027 budget to Congress, pledging a “significant deceleration of inflation,” a recovery of real wages, and the maintenance of fiscal surplus. The document, signed by Economy Minister Luis Caputo and Chief of Cabinet Diego Santilli, contains no numerical targets for inflation, the exchange rate, or trade, but states that growth will be driven by investment, private consumption, and a positive external sector. It also signals a continued reduction in public investment, with requested projects falling to 1,765 for 2027–2029, down from 4,496 in 2025, a shift the administration describes as greater “reasonability.” The final budget bill is due by 15 September.

Indonesia’s parliament and government have agreed on preliminary macroeconomic assumptions for the 2027 state budget, targeting GDP growth of 5.8–6.5% and inflation of 1.5–3.5%. The framework aims to create 2.57–3.49 million new jobs, with formal employment accounting for 40.81% of the total, and to reduce the open unemployment rate to 4.3–4.87%. The fiscal posture envisions a deficit of 1.8–2.4% of GDP, with state revenue at 12.01–12.40% of GDP. The agreed parameters will guide the drafting of the budget bill, to be presented on 16 August 2026, with final approval expected by late October.

Viewed from Stockholm, Sweden’s expansive fiscal policy is drawing criticism for its composition. LO economists note that while the economy is forecast to grow above 2% in 2026 and 2027, driven by recovering real wages, unemployment remains high at around 500,000. The government is running a deficit of nearly SEK 200 billion, far from the surplus target, yet the stimulus relies heavily on tax cuts skewed toward high-income earners and capital income, which the economists argue have a weaker multiplier effect than public investment or transfers to lower-income households. They call for a reorientation toward investment and broad-based income support to strengthen long-term competitiveness.

Across these disparate economies, a common thread emerges: governments are projecting recoveries and disinflation while confronting structural spending pressures that limit fiscal room. In Bangladesh, provisional data for the just-ended fiscal year show GDP growth picking up to a targeted 6.5% for 2026–27, but average inflation remained above 9% in recent months, and exports contracted 2.5% in the first 11 months, even as remittances surged 16% to a record $35.2 billion. The next factual milestones to watch are the submission of Argentina’s final budget on 15 September, Indonesia’s budget bill on 16 August, and the Brazilian government’s formal response to the Treasury’s projections, which will shape the fiscal debate ahead of the 2026 presidential election.