Argentina’s monthly inflation is on track to fall below 2% for the first time in ten months, with private consultancies in Buenos Aires projecting a June print of 1.8–1.9%. The official data, to be released by the INDEC statistics agency on 14 July, would mark a third consecutive month of deceleration from 2.1% in May and the lowest reading since August 2025. The government spokesman cited estimates from the Fundación Libertad y Progreso, though the central bank’s own survey of market expectations still points to 2.1%, suggesting the breach of the 2% threshold is not yet fully priced in.

The disinflation in Argentina is attributed chiefly to easing food prices—particularly beef—alongside exchange-rate stability and a slower pace of tariff adjustments. Economist Santiago Casas cautioned that a lower inflation rate does not imply falling prices, only a slower rate of increase, and noted that the recovery in real wages remains uneven, especially for informal workers. In São Paulo, the IPC-Fipe index decelerated sharply to 0.18% month-on-month in June from 0.45% in May, with the 12-month rate edging up to 3.92% as the drag from transport costs reversed.

By contrast, Ghana’s annual inflation rose to 5.3% in June from 3.7% in May, driven by non-food items. Transport fares alone contributed 10.5% of the headline rate, while rents and secondary school fees added further pressure. Services inflation stood at 9.4%, though the month-on-month pace slowed to 0.2%. Indonesia also recorded an uptick, with annual inflation reaching 3.34%—near the upper bound of the central bank’s 2.5±1% target range—after the government adjusted non-subsidised fuel prices. Bank Indonesia said the increase was consistent with its expectations and that inflation would remain within the target band through 2027, supported by coordination with regional inflation-control teams.

The next factual milestone is the INDEC release on 14 July, which will confirm whether Argentina has broken the 2% floor. In Jakarta, the focus remains on administered price adjustments and global energy costs, while Accra will watch services inflation and regional disparities—the North East Region recorded 10.2% inflation, even as Bono East saw prices fall. The readings collectively show that disinflation is proceeding unevenly across emerging markets, with commodity and policy-driven price shocks creating localised divergences.