President Donald Trump announced at the NATO summit in Ankara on 8 July that he would lift sanctions imposed on Turkey over its 2019 purchase of Russian S-400 air-defence systems and signalled a willingness to resume sales of F-35 fighter jets. The declaration, made during a two-day visit that saw Turkey name an airport terminal after Trump and stage a red-white-and-blue air show, marks a sharp reversal in a relationship that had been one of the alliance’s most strained. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who walked arm-in-arm with Trump and called him a “dear friend”, said the two leaders had also discussed naval cooperation, including frigates and submarines, and engines for Turkey’s indigenous KAAN fighter.

Viewed from Washington, the shift is driven by a personal bond between the two presidents and by commercial logic. Trump stated he did not want to sanction “friends” and later defended Erdoğan against criticism from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. However, US congressional aides and analysts in Washington note that any sanctions relief or F-35 transfer faces statutory barriers: a law passed after the S-400 acquisition prohibits F-35 sales to Turkey as long as it possesses the Russian system. From Ankara, Erdoğan framed the potential F-35 delivery as a matter of American credibility, saying “when the fighters are transferred, the world will say that America kept its word.”

Israeli officials view the prospect with alarm. Netanyahu publicly warned that selling F-35s to Turkey would “destroy the balance of power in the Middle East” and, according to Axios, asked Trump to “restrain” Erdoğan ahead of the summit. Israeli defence planners have long relied on qualitative military edge, and the introduction of stealth fighters into the Turkish air force would alter calculations in Syria, the Eastern Mediterranean and beyond. Moscow-based analysts note that any deepening of US-Turkish defence ties could also complicate Ankara’s obligations under the S-400 end-user agreement with Russia, though the Kremlin has not commented publicly.

The summit also exposed tensions within the alliance. Trump said he attended only because Erdoğan was the host, while NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, asked about a pre-summit crackdown on Turkish opposition figures and journalists, said democracy requires more than elections. No final decision has been taken on the F-35s, and the sanctions-lifting plan lacks an implementation timeline. The dossier now moves to the US Congress, where resistance is expected, leaving the trajectory of US-Turkish defence cooperation uncertain.