Ukraine has sharply escalated its maritime drone campaign against Russian fuel tankers and energy infrastructure in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea, disrupting the flow of petroleum products to occupied Crimea and triggering a nationwide gasoline shortage inside Russia. Over a four-day period in early July, Ukrainian forces struck at least 25 vessels, according to drone force commander Robert Brovdi, with the general staff claiming a further 12 tankers hit in overnight operations. Satellite imagery analysed by BBC Verify shows smoke plumes from burning ships and a reduction in the number of tankers loitering near the Kerch port loading facility. The attacks form part of what Kyiv describes as a “logistics lockdown” aimed at severing supply routes to the peninsula annexed by Moscow in 2014.

Ukrainian military officials frame the strikes as a deliberate effort to degrade Russia’s ability to sustain its war effort and to coerce the Kremlin into negotiations. A 40-day “influence operation” declared by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, due to expire in early August, targets assets that are, in the words of one naval drone operator, “expensive, strategically valuable, or difficult to replace.” The campaign has been enabled by longer-range surveillance drones, including the American-made V-BAT manufactured by Shield AI, which provide real-time intelligence without entering heavily defended airspace. European defence analysts note that after Washington paused certain forms of intelligence sharing for strikes inside Russia earlier this year, Kyiv turned increasingly to European partners; French President Emmanuel Macron has stated that two-thirds of Ukraine’s intelligence now comes from France.

Viewed from Moscow, the strikes have caused acute logistical strain. Russian regional governors, including those of Rostov and Lipetsk, have publicly appealed for federal assistance, warning that fuel shortages threaten not only civilian transport but also emergency services, the harvest season, and food distribution. The federal government has responded by banning almost all exports of gasoline, jet fuel and diesel to preserve domestic supply. According to Russian officials, two tankers in Taganrog Bay suffered mechanical damage and caught fire, while the governor of Rostov confirmed that the vessels were empty at the time of the attack. The Kremlin has not issued a detailed public assessment of the overall damage to its shadow fleet, which Western governments say is used to circumvent sanctions on Russian oil exports.

In Washington, President Donald Trump described the drone strategy as “an escalation that can help lead to an end” during a meeting with Zelenskyy at the NATO summit in Ankara. The strikes coincide with continued Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries and depots deep inside Russian territory, including in the Tver and Stavropol regions. Analysts in London observe that the current phase builds on a yearslong “shaping campaign” to degrade Russian air defences, creating corridors for drone incursions. The dossier remains highly dynamic: with the influence operation set to conclude in weeks, further maritime and infrastructure strikes are expected, while diplomatic channels at the Ankara summit have yet to produce a concrete framework for de-escalation.