Russia’s domestic fuel supply chain buckled in early July after a sustained Ukrainian drone campaign against oil refineries pushed monthly processing volumes down 25% year-on-year to 3.91 million barrels per day, the lowest level in more than two decades. Gasoline output contracted 17% to 850,000 barrels per day, well below domestic demand, according to industry estimates. The shortfall has triggered the most extensive fuel distribution restrictions since the Soviet era: by the first week of July, 60 of Russia’s 89 regions had imposed per-customer limits, typically 20–40 litres of petrol and up to 80 litres of diesel, while several cities, including Novorossiysk and much of Crimea, temporarily suspended free sale to private motorists altogether.

The production collapse is the cumulative effect of repeated long-range drone attacks that have forced unplanned outages at multiple large refineries across European Russia and Siberia. Although Russia remains one of the world’s largest crude oil producers, its refining capacity has been severely degraded, creating a bottleneck that logistics alone cannot bypass. Queues at filling stations have stretched for hours, and a black market has emerged, with police in Krasnodar detaining individuals transporting fuel for resale. The central bank has said it cannot yet quantify the inflationary impact of the price rises that have accompanied the shortages.

The government in Moscow has responded with a mix of regulatory easing, import diplomacy and public reassurance. Vice-Premier Alexander Novak ordered oil companies to deliver additional supplies to the most affected regions, singling out Irkutsk Oblast and Zabaikalsky Krai, where local authorities have introduced priority refuelling for emergency services and deployed citizen patrols to maintain order at petrol stations. The cabinet also permitted the sale of lower-standard Euro-3 fuel until the end of the year and maintained a ban on petrol exports through 31 July 2026. To bridge the gap, Russia has begun importing gasoline from India and is in talks with Belarus and Kazakhstan; Kazakhstan’s energy ministry said it would consider a request if spare capacity exists. The knock-on effects are already visible in Central Asia, where Uzbekistan has recorded sharp price increases and Kyrgyzstan has appealed for external fuel assistance.

The immediate trigger for relief will be the ability of oil companies to redirect supplies as ordered by Novak, though industry analysts in London note that the underlying refining deficit cannot be resolved without repairing damaged plants—a process that takes months under sanctions-constrained access to Western equipment. The next milestone is the expiry of the export ban at the end of July, which may be extended if domestic stocks remain under pressure. For now, the Kremlin insists the situation is “not simple but controllable,” even as queues spread to oil-producing regions of Siberia and state media are instructed to avoid the word ‘crisis’.