A majority of registered American voters believe the military conflict with Iran has not justified its economic cost, according to a Financial Times survey conducted by Focaldata. The poll, released on Sunday, found that 58% of respondents said the war was not worth the expenditure, as the White House requests an additional $67bn from Congress to cover operations. The survey also recorded a two-point drop in President Donald Trump’s approval rating to 36%, with support among independent voters falling eight points to 21%. With midterm elections four months away, the Democratic Party holds a six-point lead over Republicans, 44% to 38%, though Republican voters express higher motivation to turn out.

The findings coincide with deep public scepticism towards the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed by Washington and Tehran on 18 June. The poll shows 66% of voters believe the accord will do little or nothing for Middle East stability, or could even increase the likelihood of further conflict. Only one in five respondents expressed confidence in the deal. Behind the diplomatic language, the 45-page MoU, mediated by Oman, Switzerland and Pakistan, has encountered a critical obstacle: Article 1, which addresses the security and sovereignty of Lebanon. Tehran insists it will not implement its own commitments—including the blending down of enriched nuclear material and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 24 hours of a final agreement—until there is a permanent halt to military operations, a guarantee of Lebanon’s territorial integrity, and what it describes as the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon. For Iran, the presence of Hezbollah south of the Litani River is a core strategic interest, not a peripheral bargaining chip.

The war’s economic toll has become a central domestic liability. The poll indicates that 44% of voters now assess the United States’ position vis-à-vis Iran as weaker than before the conflict, against 31% who see it as stronger. Rising petrol prices and consumer inflation, which the survey links to the war, have eroded Trump’s standing. The president has also faced criticism from within his own Republican Party over the MoU, which many view as conceding too much to Tehran. On the alliance front, 53% of Americans want to remain in NATO, while 23% favour withdrawal after the war. Trump has previously called the alliance a “paper tiger” and threatened to leave over European refusal to provide bases for operations against Iran. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has countered with an economic argument, telling Washington that Europe’s $300bn rearmament programme sustains an estimated 195,000 US defence jobs.

Hostilities briefly resumed after the MoU was signed, with both sides exchanging attacks before agreeing again last weekend to halt the fighting and hold further talks. The MoU sets a 60-day deadline for separate negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme, which Tehran hopes will lead to sanctions relief. The US naval blockade is to be lifted and Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz restored under the accord’s terms. However, the sequencing demanded by Iran—operationalising Lebanon’s security guarantees before it moves on its own obligations—leaves the process vulnerable to collapse. The midterm elections in November add a further layer of uncertainty, as the administration’s room for manoeuvre narrows under domestic political pressure.