The seven core OPEC+ countries agreed on Sunday to raise their collective oil production target by 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) from August, the fifth consecutive monthly increase, as the alliance accelerates the return of barrels idled since the 2023 voluntary cuts. The decision, announced after a virtual meeting of ministers from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, comes with Brent crude trading near $72 a barrel—down more than 40 per cent from wartime peaks above $120—and follows the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under a US-Iran memorandum signed on 17 June.

The increment is the latest step in dismantling the 1.65 million bpd of additional voluntary reductions first pledged in April 2023, when the group included the UAE. Between April and July, these seven countries had already lifted output quotas by nearly 800,000 bpd, though actual supply lagged significantly because Iran’s closure of the strait between February and May slashed shipments from Gulf producers. Combined production from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait fell by roughly 6 million bpd between the first quarter and May, according to OPEC figures. With shipping now gradually recovering—some estimates suggest flows through Hormuz have topped 10 million bpd—the August increase is aimed at closing the gap between nominal targets and realisable supply, even as analysts caution that restarting shut-in wells and filling tankers will take weeks.

Under the new schedule, Saudi Arabia and Russia each gain 62,000 bpd, reaching 10.416 million and 9.887 million bpd respectively; Iraq adds 26,000 bpd; Kuwait 16,000 bpd; Kazakhstan 10,000 bpd; Algeria 6,000 bpd; and Oman 5,000 bpd. The quotas remain partly aspirational, however. In London and Zurich, commodity analysts note that actual output is still running below the raised ceilings, while the combination of recovering Gulf supply, record strategic stock releases coordinated by the IEA, and weak Chinese demand is generating expectations of a market surplus next year. Views from Baghdad add pressure: Iraq has formally requested higher quotas to compensate for wartime losses, a demand that echoes the UAE’s departure from OPEC+ in May.

The next policy review is set for 2 August, when ministers will set September levels. Should they repeat the 188,000 bpd increase, the residual 379,000 bpd of the 2023 cut would be fully restored by the end of September, eliminating the last of the voluntary curbs. The meeting will also test the group’s cohesion as members balance the desire for market share against the risk of a renewed price slide.