US Secretary of State Marco Rubio travels to Manila on Sunday for a series of ASEAN-linked foreign ministers’ meetings, where he is expected to hold talks with Chinese counterpart Wang Yi to lay the groundwork for a September summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. The five-day visit, confirmed by the State Department, will include the ASEAN Post-Ministerial Conference, the East Asia Summit Foreign Ministers’ Meeting and the ASEAN Regional Forum, as well as bilateral sessions with Indo-Pacific officials.

According to the State Department, the trip advances a “free and open Indo-Pacific that delivers safety, security, and prosperity for the region and for the American people.” Viewed from Washington, that formulation is a direct effort to counterbalance China’s expanding influence at a moment when the Iran conflict has disrupted global energy markets and raised doubts among allies about US staying power. On the sidelines, Japan, the United States, Australia and India are arranging a Quad foreign ministers’ meeting, which Japanese officials say will reaffirm cooperation on energy security and rare earth supplies in the face of Chinese assertiveness.

Southeast Asian governments, as reflected in regional diplomatic reporting, are focused on the economic fallout from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The International Energy Agency notes that roughly 80 percent of hydrocarbons transiting the waterway are destined for Asian countries, and leaders at a May Bangkok summit discussed creating a shared fuel reserve. Analysts in Washington and Tokyo observe that Rubio’s central challenge is to convince partners that the United States can sustain its regional commitments while managing the Middle East crisis, and to prevent frustrated capitals from tilting toward Beijing. The expected Rubio-Wang meeting is seen in both capitals as a stabilising step; Trump and Xi agreed during their May encounter in Beijing to hold a follow-up summit on 24 September at the White House, and the Manila talks would serve as a preparatory session.

Beyond energy and great-power competition, the agenda includes the South China Sea, where ASEAN and China remain committed to negotiating a code of conduct despite Beijing’s rejection of a 2016 arbitral ruling against its claims. The situation in Myanmar, whose junta has been sidelined by ASEAN since the 2021 coup, will also be discussed after foreign ministers held informal talks with the country’s representative. The US side, according to analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, is likely to raise the issue of Southeast Asian scam centres costing Americans billions of dollars annually. The Manila meetings run through Thursday, with the Quad gathering still being finalised and the Trump-Xi summit expected to dominate the bilateral diplomacy.