The US House of Representatives is set to vote this week on a $95 billion budget resolution that would unlock new military spending for the war against Iran and advance elements of the SAVE America Act, a voting bill that has twice failed to clear the Senate. President Donald Trump intervened publicly on Monday, posting on Truth Social to demand all House Republicans “VOTE YES” and unify behind the measure, which Speaker Mike Johnson is steering through the budget reconciliation process to bypass Democratic opposition. With a razor-thin majority, Republican leaders can afford to lose only three votes, and at least two lawmakers have already signalled opposition, according to House GOP sources.

The package has exposed deep fissures within the Republican conference. Fiscal conservatives, including Representatives Eric Burlison of Missouri and Thomas Massie of Kentucky, object to the absence of spending cuts to offset the $73 billion in military funding, much of it earmarked for the Iran conflict. Mr Burlison told Fox News that the lack of a “payfor” and the omission of language defunding Planned Parenthood were sufficient for him to vote no. A senior House GOP aide, speaking anonymously, warned that abandoning fiscal discipline would erode credibility. Meanwhile, Senate Republicans such as Lisa Murkowski of Alaska have expressed pessimism about the bill’s prospects, and the chamber’s parliamentarian has previously ruled that the SAVE Act’s language is not compliant with reconciliation rules. The White House and Vice President JD Vance have mounted a full-court press, but one House Republican put the odds of passage at “50-50”.

Viewed from Beijing, the legislative manoeuvring coincides with a delicate diplomatic moment. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed on Sunday that preparations for a visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to the United States in September remain on track, with Chinese advance teams continuing their work. The planned summit follows Mr Trump’s trip to Beijing in May and comes despite his primetime address last week accusing China of interfering in the 2020 presidential election to ensure his defeat—a claim Beijing’s foreign ministry has rejected as “baseless slander”. Mr Rubio, speaking before departing for the ASEAN foreign ministers’ meeting in Manila, said he may hold separate talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the sidelines, underscoring that both powers bear a responsibility to maintain dialogue.

The budget resolution is the third Republican-only reconciliation package in this Congress, following bills that funded immigration enforcement and extended tax cuts by reducing food assistance and healthcare spending. Its fate will have immediate consequences for US military operations and the administration’s domestic agenda. If the House approves the framework, the Senate must still pass its own version, draft detailed legislation, and survive another parliamentarian review—all within roughly 20 legislative days before the midterm elections. The House vote is expected within days, and failure would not only stall the SAVE Act but also leave the Iran war funding in limbo, even as the Xi visit looms as a potential channel for managing bilateral tensions.