The NATO summit convening in Ankara on 7–8 July will be dominated by President Donald Trump’s renewed denunciations of alliance burden-sharing and Washington’s frustration with European partners who refused to join military operations against Iran. In a social media post ahead of the gathering, Trump described the US–NATO relationship as “ridiculous,” pointing to a graph that starkly illustrated the gap between American and allied defense expenditures. According to US officials, the president is attending only out of respect for the Turkish host, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and remains deeply dissatisfied with what he calls inadequate European support.

European governments, for their part, argue that their recent spending surge—an additional $139 billion in 2025 alone, a nearly 20 percent increase—demonstrates a genuine effort to meet the 5‑percent‑of‑GDP target set at last year’s Hague summit. Diplomats from several capitals are working to reframe the debate around a “NATO 3.0” concept that broadens the definition of security to include cyber defence, energy resilience and critical infrastructure protection. Italy will present a figure of 2.8 percent of GDP, of which 2.09 percent is core defence spending and 0.71 percent goes toward this wider security perimeter, while calling for a clear distinction between NATO targets and the EU’s separate Safe defence‑financing programme.

A fresh diplomatic row has sharpened the transatlantic mood. NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte told Fox News that 500 US aircraft had taken off from Italian bases to support Operation Epic Fury against Iran. Rome insists these were purely technical flights and denies any kinetic involvement, but Rutte has not retreated from his statement. Viewed from Washington, the episode confirms that allies are unwilling to come to America’s aid even when hostilities directly involve US forces; according to European officials, domestic legal and political constraints prevented open backing of the Iran campaign, but they note that bilateral basing agreements were honoured. Rutte is expected to use the summit to present concrete spending trajectories in an effort to placate Trump.

On Ukraine, the allies will endorse a final declaration of continued support, a new voluntary NATO contribution of €40 billion, and a joint procurement mechanism for US‑made weapons. Kyiv’s membership prospects remain unchanged. As leaders gather, the alliance confronts an unresolved tension between Trump’s transactional demand that Europe pay for its own defence and the European push for strategic autonomy. The communiqué is likely to paper over these divisions with language that acknowledges higher spending while embracing a wider security framework; no fundamental breakthrough is in sight.