The Paris Court of Appeal delivers its verdict on Tuesday in the embezzlement case against Marine Le Pen and two dozen other defendants, a ruling that will immediately clarify whether the far-right frontrunner can contest the 2027 presidential election. The court will decide whether to uphold, reduce, or overturn the five-year ban from public office imposed in March 2025, when Le Pen was convicted of misusing European Parliament funds to pay party staff. If the ineligibility is confirmed with provisional execution, she is barred from the race; if it is suspended or reduced to under two years, she could still stand. The judgment is expected at 1:30 p.m. local time.

Within the National Rally, Le Pen and party president Jordan Bardella have publicly presented a united front. At a rally in Liévin on Saturday, Le Pen pledged to support Bardella “with great energy, conviction and confidence” should she be sidelined, while Bardella stated he was “ready to assume the consequences” of any verdict. Le Pen has described the proceedings as a political attempt to block her path to the Élysée, a view echoed by her niece Marion Maréchal, who declared that “nothing will stop” her aunt regardless of the judges’ decision. The party has prepared a dual campaign, with Bardella already leading in first-round polling at around 37% and winning most runoff scenarios, according to surveys cited in French media.

Other political actors are calibrating their strategies around the verdict. Centrist former prime minister Édouard Philippe held a major rally on Monday, positioning himself as a unity candidate against extremes and calling for tighter border controls. Hard-left figure Jean-Luc Mélenchon remains a contender, while ECB President Christine Lagarde has signalled a possible candidacy, telling French media that a “European voice” must be heard in the debate and warning against any weakening of France’s anchoring in the EU. Viewed from Rome, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni previously criticised the first-instance ruling, and unconfirmed reports in German media suggested the Trump administration considered sanctions against the judges, though Paris did not confirm this.

The case dates to a system in which the then-National Front allegedly paid assistants with EU funds for party work in France between 2004 and 2016, causing a loss of €4.1 million to the European Parliament. The appeal trial concluded in February 2026, with the prosecution requesting a five-year ineligibility without immediate application—a nuance that would allow Le Pen to run while appealing to the Court of Cassation, though the timeline could collide with the campaign. The presidential election is fixed for 18 April and 2 May 2027. Whatever the verdict, the National Rally is expected to remain a dominant electoral force, but the identity of its candidate will shape the dynamics of a race that, from the perspective of Brussels and other European capitals, carries significant implications for the EU’s future direction.