New vehicle sales across several large emerging economies are running ahead of expectations midway through 2026, even as consumer appetite for smartphones cools. In Russia, June registrations of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles rose 26.9% year on year to 122,731 units, according to industry ministry data, pushing the half-year total to 650,336. Brazil’s dealer federation Fenabrave revised its full-year growth forecast upward to 8.6%, projecting more than 5.2 million units across all segments, citing a federal programme that cuts industrial-product taxes on cleaner vehicles. In Indonesia, the market is stable but awaiting a delayed purchase incentive for 200,000 electric vehicles, now expected in August, which Hyundai and VinFast are watching closely as they prepare new model launches.

The divergence from the smartphone segment is sharp. Russian smartphone sales fell 7.8% by volume in the first half, to 12 million units, with revenue down 5.9%, according to retailer M.Video. MTS, another operator, reported a 10% drop in units. Industry analysts attribute the decline to longer replacement cycles: modern devices satisfy most users for three to four years, and high interest rates on savings have cooled discretionary spending. Samsung gained share in Russia’s handset market, but globally the company is preparing to raise prices on its Galaxy S27 series by $50–$100 after a plan to source cheaper OLED panels from China’s BOE fell through, according to specialist press reports.

Automotive demand, by contrast, is being shaped by deliberate policy. Russia’s industry ministry noted that domestically produced vehicles accounted for 63.4% of sales in the first half, up more than eight percentage points, while hybrid and electric vehicle sales nearly doubled to 54,300 units. Brazil’s growth has been led by cars and light commercials, up 20.1% in the first half, though truck and bus segments remain in decline. In Indonesia, Hyundai’s chief operating officer said the company is waiting for the government’s EV incentive regulation without complaint, while preparing to unveil a locally produced seven-seat electric model at the Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show (GIIAS) in late July. VinFast has already taken 1,200 orders for its VF MPV 7 electric people-carrier, with 400 units delivered.

The next milestone for the auto sector is the GIIAS exhibition opening on 29 July, where Hyundai, VinFast and others will test whether new electric and hybrid models can convert interest into sales without the incentive framework yet in place. In Russia, the market’s trajectory will depend on whether the 46.2% surge in domestically made vehicles can be sustained as the base effect fades. For smartphones, the Samsung price increase expected with the Galaxy S27 launch in early 2027 will indicate whether manufacturers can pass on rising component costs without further dampening demand.