Spot gold rose 1.4% to $4,179.94 an ounce on Friday, its highest since 23 June, after US labour market data showed nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57,000 in June—well below the 115,000 consensus forecast. The precious metal headed for its first weekly gain in five weeks, up 2.3%, while silver surged more than 2% to $62.43 an ounce and platinum and palladium also notched multi-day highs. In India, gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange breached Rs 1.48 lakh per 10 grams, lifting shares of gold financiers Muthoot Finance and Manappuram Finance by as much as 5%.

The rally was driven by a rapid repricing of US interest-rate expectations. The tepid payrolls report, coupled with downward revisions to the previous two months, eased fears that the Federal Reserve would raise borrowing costs at its July meeting. Analysts in Sydney argued the figures challenged the narrative that the central bank remained on track to tighten in the second half of the year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders now assign only an 18% probability to a rate increase at the next meeting, down from roughly one-third earlier in the week. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, while a weakening dollar—heading for a weekly decline—made bullion cheaper for holders of other currencies.

A concurrent drop in oil prices reinforced the disinflationary backdrop. Brent crude futures retreated towards $72 a barrel after the United States and Iran made progress in talks to convert their interim 60-day truce into a lasting peace agreement, easing concerns over Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions. Analysts in Toronto noted that falling energy costs and slowing employment growth point to diminishing inflation pressure in the months ahead, further reducing the urgency for monetary tightening. In Dubai, 24-karat gold returned above the Dh500-per-gram threshold, reaching Dh503.50, as local traders tracked the global move.

Gold also drew support from renewed political uncertainty surrounding the Fed itself. President Donald Trump’s efforts to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, confirmed by the president in a CNBC interview, revived the so-called debasement trade that had helped drive bullion to a record high in January. The next factual milestones are the Fed’s July policy meeting and the implementation of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, both of which will shape the trajectory of real yields and the dollar in the weeks ahead.