Iran will begin state funeral rites for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on 4 July, more than four months after he was killed in the opening US-Israeli strikes of the war, with military commanders issuing explicit warnings to both capitals against any hostile act during the ceremonies. Ali Abdollahi, commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, said in a statement carried by state media that the United States, Israel and their “regional and extra-regional accomplices” should “avoid any miscalculation” and expect “harsh and regret-inducing reactions” to any threat. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi had earlier delivered a similar message after Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz described the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, as “marked for death.”

The six-day programme, which will move from Tehran to Qom, then to the Iraqi shrine cities of Najaf and Karbala, before burial in Mashhad on 9 July, is being treated by the Iranian leadership as both a display of national unity and a security operation of unprecedented scale. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf called on Iranians to “write a glorious page in the history of Islamic Iran” and to make the “call for vengeance ring in the ears of the whole world.” Authorities have declared public holidays, imposed airspace restrictions over several cities and are preparing to manage crowds that officials estimate could reach 15–20 million. Iranian planners are haunted by the chaos of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s funeral in 1989, when a crush forced the suspension of the burial, and by the stampede that killed at least 56 mourners during the 2020 funeral of commander Qasem Soleimani.

The funeral is unfolding against the backdrop of a fragile ceasefire and indirect US-Iranian talks in Doha, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will attend the ceremonies before travelling to Turkey, while China is sending a senior lawmaker and Russia is dispatching former president Dmitry Medvedev as President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy. Indian representation will be led by a junior foreign minister and a state governor, with Congress party leader Salman Khurshid also attending. According to Pakistani and Qatari mediators, the Doha negotiations have made progress and are expected to resume after the burial. Western diplomatic sources note that the funeral will effectively pause the 60-day window for negotiating a definitive agreement that was established by the preliminary memorandum of understanding signed in June.

A persistent question hanging over the ceremonies is whether Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not been seen in public since his father’s death and was reportedly wounded in the same strike, will appear. Iranian officials say the decision rests solely with the supreme leader’s office, and the organising committee has no information. Tehran-based analysts note that a public appearance would carry powerful symbolic weight, marking a transfer of authority, while continued absence would fuel speculation about his health and the stability of the succession. The burial in Mashhad on 9 July is expected to close the official mourning period, after which the indirect talks in Doha are scheduled to resume, with the status of the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear file still unresolved.