The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) upgraded its El Niño forecast on Friday, projecting a rapid intensification into a strong event during July–September 2026. Seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are expected to exceed 2°C above the norm, reaching level three on the agency’s four-tier scale. The WMO notes that forecast models from leading global climate centres show “remarkable agreement,” lending high confidence to the outlook. The phenomenon, which warms surface waters and disrupts atmospheric circulation, is already under way and is expected to continue strengthening through the northern hemisphere autumn.

El Niño’s influence on global weather patterns is well documented. The WMO warns of an overwhelming probability of above-average temperatures across nearly all populated land areas outside the polar regions for the July–September period. Rainfall projections are consistent with a classic strong event: below-normal precipitation is likely over the Indian subcontinent, much of Australia, parts of the tropical Indian Ocean, the Caribbean, Central America, and northwestern South America. Above-normal rainfall is forecast for the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, portions of the southwestern United States, and the northern Gulf of Guinea. In Europe, a north–south contrast is expected, with wetter conditions in the south and drier in the north, though confidence remains lower.

Regional preparations are accelerating. In Brazil, where the phenomenon typically brings drought to the North and Northeast and heavier rains to the South, the state of Rio de Janeiro has activated a multi-agency network spanning civil defence, firefighting, water, and energy sectors. The national government has earmarked nearly R$10 billion for vulnerable areas. Peru declared a 60-day state of emergency in 800 municipalities due to the “imminent danger” of heavy rains and landslides. Indonesia’s disaster agency has urged local governments to map drought-prone zones and prepare for a water crisis, with the El Niño expected to last from July 2026 until May 2027. In India, analysts note that a weakened monsoon could reduce production of rice, sugar cane, and oilseeds, with the World Bank estimating potential rice output drops of 20–50% in parts of South Asia.

The WMO stresses that while El Niño is a natural cycle occurring every two to seven years, its effects are amplified by a warmer baseline climate. The last strong event, in 2023–2024, contributed to making those years the hottest on record. The current episode arrives as the Copernicus Climate Change Service reports that global sea-surface temperatures outside the polar regions hit a new June record on 21 June, surpassing the previous high set in 2024. The agency’s director, Carlo Buontempo, said the combination of record ocean heat and an intensifying El Niño makes further temperature records likely in the coming months. The next factual milestone is the expected peak of the event between November and February, with temperature and precipitation impacts persisting well into 2027.