The global ocean surface has broken its temperature record for the time of year, the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service confirmed, surpassing the extraordinary peaks of 2023 and 2024. The 21 June reading, which excludes polar waters, coincides with the earliest phases of an El Niño event that forecasters expect to be among the strongest in decades. The additional heat stored in the seas—which already absorb more than 90 percent of the excess energy trapped by greenhouse gases—is injecting further volatility into weather systems, with immediate consequences for public safety and economic planning.

In South America, the response has been swift and uneven. Peru declared a 60-day state of emergency covering 796 districts—roughly 40 percent of the country—citing a “very high” risk of intense rainfall, flooding and landslides. The decree, signed by outgoing President José Maria Balcazar, spans regions including Lima, Cusco and Arequipa and will be financed from existing institutional budgets. Uruguayan meteorologist José Serra of Inumet warned that “it is late to prepare” for what he termed a Super Niño, urging investment in early-warning systems, territorial planning and infrastructure adapted to more frequent extremes. In Brazil, analysts at Santander described the macro risks as “manageable” but projected a dispersion in corporate earnings: beverage and utility companies could benefit, while agribusiness and rural credit face headwinds. Rio de Janeiro state has separately begun contingency planning for the 2026/27 summer, when international models give a 96 percent probability of El Niño conditions.

The health dimension is emerging through air quality. A study published in Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, covering the period 2000–2023, found that during El Niño episodes, fire-related concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) rise substantially—by 49 to 116 percent in North America, 18 to 43 percent in Australia, and 28 to 71 percent in Indonesia. The 2015 El Niño, which drove 119,072 large fires in Indonesia, affected an estimated 43 million people and triggered a public-health emergency across six Southeast Asian nations, according to the World Health Organization. Colombia’s Ideam has similarly cautioned that drier, hotter conditions will increase the probability of fires and episodic air-quality deterioration in the Caribbean, Andean and Pacific regions.

Ocean temperatures typically peak in July and August, meaning the full scale of this year’s marine heat is not yet known. Carlo Buontempo, Copernicus director at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, said the early record could signal “the beginning of a new phase” and that “with ocean temperatures at these levels and El Niño on the horizon, we are likely to see more temperature records fall in the coming months.” The next factual milestone is the seasonal maximum of sea-surface temperatures, which will determine whether the current trajectory intensifies further and how deeply it stresses agriculture, energy systems and public-health infrastructure across the hemispheres.