The World Cup’s knockout phase begins for one of the tournament favourites on Tuesday evening, as France face Sweden at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, with a place in the round of 16 against Paraguay awaiting the winner. The encounter pits a French side that swept through Group I with maximum points and ten goals against a Swedish team that squeezed into the last 32 as one of the best third-placed finishers, having veered from a 5-1 demolition of Tunisia to a 5-1 loss against the Netherlands before a 1-1 draw with Japan secured passage.

France’s group-stage campaign was built on relentless attacking output. Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé each scored four times, with Dembélé claiming a hat-trick in the 4-1 win over Norway that closed the opening round. Across three matches, Les Bleus converted 26 per cent of their shots into goals, a rate only marginally higher than Sweden’s 23 per cent, yet the defensive record was sturdier: just two goals conceded. Head coach Didier Deschamps, back on the touchline after missing the Norway game following his mother’s death, acknowledged the shift in intensity. “Sweden will have nothing to lose and can cause us problems,” he said. “There is confidence, but not overconfidence, because we know the quality of the opponent is going to increase.”

Sweden’s path has been far less linear. Graham Potter’s side opened with a five-goal flourish against Tunisia, then suffered an equally emphatic collapse against the Dutch, before Anthony Elanga’s strike and a series of saves from goalkeeper Widell Zetterström earned the point needed against Japan. The attacking pair of Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres is viewed across European football as the Scandinavians’ primary weapon; Isak has contributed a goal and three assists, while Elanga and Yasin Ayari lead the scoring with two each. Potter has demanded a performance “as if our lives depended on it,” and Ayari insisted the team can create chances despite expecting to defend for long periods.

Deschamps has identified Sweden’s speed on the counter-attack and threat from set-pieces as the main dangers, noting that Potter’s back five becomes especially dangerous when space opens up. France are likely to persist with the back four that has served them well, though Marcus Thuram is ruled out through injury and N’Golo Kanté faces a late fitness test. Midfielder Adrien Rabiot stressed that Sweden would be taken “as seriously as we took Iraq and Norway,” a reflection of the respect a side that reached the 2018 quarter-finals still commands.

For France, the stakes are framed by history: anything short of a return to the final at this same stadium on 19 July would be regarded in Paris as a failure. Sweden, by contrast, are chasing a repeat of their best World Cup run, the last-eight appearance in Russia six years ago. The winner will travel to Philadelphia to meet Paraguay, who eliminated Germany on penalties, in the round of 16.