
新兴市场同步调整税制:孟加拉国提高个税起征点,巴西放宽小微企业上限,坦桑尼亚改革增值税退税
孟加拉国、巴西和坦桑尼亚几乎同时推进税制微调,以缓解小微企业和工薪阶层的压力,但各自面临不同的政治博弈与财政约束。
孟加拉国即将通过的2026-27财年预算案中,个人所得税免税收入上限预计将从35万塔卡一次性提高至40万塔卡,较最初提案多出2.5万塔卡。这一调整直接回应了持续高通胀下低收入纳税人的诉求,达卡的政策研究机构对此表示欢迎,认为此举将为工薪阶层提供一定缓冲。与此同时,政府暂缓了对年营业额低于50万塔卡的小型零售商征收单一增值税的计划,并允许企业按季度而非按月缴纳增值税,以降低合规成本。
在巴西,联邦政府本周将向国会提交法案,拟将微型个体经营者(MEI)的年收入上限从当前的8.1万雷亚尔分阶段提高至13万至14万雷亚尔,并允许其雇佣两名员工而非目前的一名。这一调整被视为选举年的重要政策交付,拥有广泛国会支持。然而,围绕是否同步上调涵盖小微企业的“简易税制”(Simples Nacional)各档上限,行政当局与国会陷入僵局。财政部将后者的全面调高称为“炸弹议程”,估算每年将造成500亿雷亚尔的税收损失,而众议院报告人则坚持将通胀自动调整机制写入法案。
东非的坦桑尼亚则在2026/27财年预算中引入了一项看似技术性却可能深刻改变投资环境的改革:强制规定增值税退税须在30天内完成,逾期则政府需支付法定利息。此前,积压的应退税款约达6.5亿美元,企业常需等待数月甚至数年,退税延迟实际上成为一种隐形税负。出口商和制造商协会指出,此举将改善现金流、降低投资成本,并有助于坦桑尼亚在区域引资竞争中缩小与肯尼亚、埃塞俄比亚的差距。
三国的税制调整均反映出新兴经济体在财政整顿与增长激励之间的艰难平衡。孟加拉国反对党领袖在议会辩论中将执政党与反对党比作同一车辆的两个轮胎,呼吁停止相互削弱,并敦促政府解决海外资金回流、教育卫生改革等问题。巴西的博弈则集中在国会能否将MEI的上调扩展至整个简易税制,坦桑尼亚的改革效果将取决于税务机关的执行力度。未来几周,孟加拉国财政法案的最终表决、巴西法案的正式提交以及坦桑尼亚预算的实施细则,将是观察这些政策能否真正落地的关键节点。
| 印度及南亚媒体 | −0.20 | neutral |
|---|---|---|
| 阿拉伯海湾媒体 | +0.30 | aligned |
| 拉丁美洲媒体 | −0.40 | critical |
Small entrepreneurs and informal workers in Bangladesh and Tanzania are being strangled by still-too-high tax thresholds; the reform is a palliative that does not change their lives.
It gives voice to individual cases of economic hardship, making the perceived injustice concrete and immediate, without analyzing macroeconomic data.
Technical details of the new thresholds and studies showing a possible increase in revenue for public services are omitted.
Brazil, Bangladesh and Tanzania show that smart tax reform opens doors for investors and creates a business-friendly environment.
It emphasizes successes and opportunities, using corporate case-study language, and downplays social criticism.
Social protests and analyses highlighting the rising cost of living for the middle class are omitted.
The governments of Brazil, Bangladesh and Tanzania betray their most vulnerable citizens with a tax reform that favors the rich and multinationals.
It uses moralizing language and links the reform to external interests, creating a narrative of betrayal and systemic injustice.
Data showing an increase in investment and job creation in the sectors affected by the reform are omitted.