The United States has conveyed to Warsaw a series of intelligence assessments indicating that Russia may be preparing a limited armed provocation against Poland or a Baltic state, according to sources close to the Polish presidency and defence officials cited by Polish and British media. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk confirmed on Friday that his government is actively preparing for “various scenarios” and described the coming months as potentially “critical,” particularly for the Baltic region. The warnings arrive days before NATO leaders convene in Ankara, where they are expected to formally designate Russia a long-term threat to Euro-Atlantic security.

Polish and European security sources describe several possible forms such an operation could take. These include missile or drone strikes against critical infrastructure such as power stations, simulated air attacks designed to trigger Polish air defences, or a small-scale ground incursion by Russian or Belarusian troops from the Kaliningrad exclave or from Belarus. According to these assessments, Moscow would likely present any border violation as a navigational error or a rescue mission, maintaining plausible deniability. The objective, as reconstructed by Western intelligence officials, would be to test NATO’s collective defence resolve without triggering a full-scale conventional conflict, while creating political pressure on allied governments to suspend military and financial aid to Ukraine.

Viewed from European capitals, the alleged planning reflects a broader pattern of Russian probing along NATO’s eastern flank. Baltic security services have separately warned of possible military provocations in their region, and a recent large-scale naval exercise in Latvia involving US Marines was, according to alliance sources, calibrated to signal that any attack would directly engage American forces. The warnings also coincide with one of the deadliest Russian aerial assaults on Kyiv in months, underlining the Kremlin’s continued military pressure despite diplomatic overtures. NATO diplomats note that the alliance’s upcoming summit will reaffirm Article 5 commitments, even as US President Donald Trump has publicly questioned the alliance’s structure and conditioned American support on higher European defence spending.

Polish officials have not publicly detailed specific countermeasures, but Tusk stressed that Warsaw is not ignoring the threat and is coordinating closely with allies. The Polish government has previously indicated it does not rule out a Russian false-flag operation within two years. Analysts in London and Warsaw note that any incident would place immediate strain on the alliance’s decision-making, as Moscow would likely demand an end to Western arms supplies to Ukraine as a condition for de-escalation. The dossier remains fluid: no operational order has been confirmed, and Russia has not commented on the reports. NATO leaders are expected to use the Ankara summit to pledge additional military aid to Ukraine and to reinforce the alliance’s eastern deterrence posture.