Özgür Özel, the ousted chairman of Turkey’s main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), announced on Tuesday that he is resigning from the party and forming a new political grouping, a move that splits the country’s largest anti-government force and redraws parliamentary arithmetic ahead of the 2028 presidential election. The decision follows a May court ruling that annulled the 2023 CHP congress that elected Özel and reinstated former leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Özel, addressing more than 80 CHP lawmakers in parliament, described the step as “a new beginning” and a form of resistance to what he called political pressure. Turkish media report that the new party, expected to be named Yeni Parti (New Party), could be formally registered this week, and that a majority of the CHP’s 135 deputies are likely to defect, instantly making it the largest opposition bloc in the 600-seat assembly.

The split is the latest episode in a widening legal crackdown on the CHP, which has seen hundreds of local officials and party members detained since late 2024, including Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, who remains imprisoned on corruption charges. From Ankara, the government maintains that the judiciary acts independently and that the CHP leadership dispute is an internal matter. However, according to European Union officials and international rights monitors, the court’s intervention fits a pattern of using the justice system to sideline popular opposition figures. Özel himself had overseen the CHP’s strongest electoral performance in years, defeating President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ruling alliance in the 2024 municipal elections and retaining control of Turkey’s largest cities. His removal, viewed from Brussels and Washington, deepens concerns about the erosion of political pluralism in a NATO member state.

The parliamentary consequences carry direct implications for Erdoğan’s ability to seek another term. Under the constitution, the president is limited to two terms, but he can run again if parliament calls an early election during his current mandate. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its nationalist ally hold 328 seats, 32 short of the three-fifths majority required to trigger an early vote. Turkish political analysts note that a fragmented opposition could make it harder to block such a motion, and some suggest the government might court the pro-Kurdish DEM Party, which holds 63 seats and has recently facilitated peace talks between the state and the PKK. While the AKP insists it has no plans for an early election, the new parliamentary landscape alters the calculus, potentially opening a path for Erdoğan to extend his more than two-decade rule without a constitutional amendment, a riskier route that would require a referendum.

The CHP, founded by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, has never before experienced a split of this magnitude. Özel’s move comes after his appeal against the court ruling stalled, with the Court of Cassation going into recess without hearing the case. The reinstated chairman Kılıçdaroğlu has not publicly commented on the defection. The immediate next step is the submission of the new party’s founding documents to the interior ministry, after which the number of defecting lawmakers will become clear. The dossier now moves to a phase of realignment, with the opposition’s ability to present a united front in any early election scenario severely tested.