The United States is approaching what officials describe as a decisive fork in its confrontation with Iran, with two starkly different outcomes under active consideration: a 10-day ceasefire aimed at restoring freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, or a large-scale joint military campaign with Israel designed to compel Tehran’s capitulation. According to a report by Axios, confirmed by multiple regional sources, the Trump administration is simultaneously exploring a ceasefire proposal tabled by Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan and other mediators, while dispatching dozens of additional fighter jets and refuelling aircraft to the region in preparation for a possible major escalation.

The ceasefire initiative, according to two sources cited by the Jerusalem Post, was originally put forward by Iran, underscoring what those sources describe as Tehran’s urgent search for a pause in the face of expanding US strikes. Washington, however, is demanding a longer truce and at least partial understandings on freedom of navigation before any halt takes effect, with some US officials characterising the Iranian proposal as “absurd” and “illogical”. A US official told the Jerusalem Post that President Trump is focused on ensuring Iran “pays a price” for the deaths of American service members and for violations of a now-collapsed memorandum of understanding. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened a lengthy security consultation, after which Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said Israel “has no interest in joining the conflict” and views the status quo as its best option.

The proposed 10-day pause would reopen both shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz—the southern route via Omani waters without Iranian attacks, and the northern route through Iranian waters without a US naval blockade—and create space for negotiations on a long-term transit mechanism. Regional mediators have floated models including a “middle corridor” and a system of service fees for Iran, akin to arrangements in the Strait of Malacca, or a jointly administered fund under the International Maritime Organisation. The diplomatic push comes as oil prices briefly surged past $90 a barrel after Iran expanded attacks to commercial vessels and energy infrastructure in Gulf states, and as Houthi forces in Yemen declared a naval blockade of Saudi ports, opening a new front against shipping.

Neither side has yet accepted the ceasefire. According to sources quoted by Axios and Mint, momentum behind the proposal stalled after an Iranian missile strike in Jordan reportedly killed two US service members, prompting Washington to step back from talks. The US is expected to continue strikes for several more days, while Iran has signalled it will “respond with strength”. The Iranian Foreign Ministry confirmed discussions were taking place but declined to provide details. President Trump is scheduled to attend a ceremony marking the return of the fallen soldiers’ remains, a moment that officials in Washington say will weigh on his decision. The coming days, regional mediators warn, will determine whether the crisis moves toward de-escalation or a wider war.