President Donald Trump declared on Wednesday that Cuba is “moving into our orbit” after decades of estrangement, speaking at a ceremony in North Dakota. The statement, reported by Spanish-language and Russian outlets, came weeks after Washington imposed a fresh round of sanctions on Cuban political and military figures and tightened an energy embargo that, according to Cuban state media, has triggered daily blackouts and near-paralysis of transport. Trump offered no specifics on what the shift entailed, but his administration has previously signalled that economic suffocation is designed to force political change on the island.

Viewed from Washington, the pressure campaign is multi-layered. The US Treasury has targeted foreign entities operating in Cuba’s energy, defence, mining and financial sectors, while the Pentagon deployed the USS Nimitz carrier strike group to the Caribbean in May. Le Figaro, citing US officials, reported that the military posture is intended to complement diplomatic and economic measures aimed at toppling a government that has defied Washington since the 1960s. Russian state media have further quoted Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth as raising the possibility of seizing Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel, a claim that underscores the escalatory rhetoric emanating from the administration.

Havana has responded by accelerating a package of economic reforms that state-controlled outlets describe as an attempt to emulate the “Vietnam model” of market opening while preserving one-party rule. The measures, approved by the Communist Party central committee and the National Assembly, introduce elements of private enterprise and foreign investment to relieve what officials acknowledge is an unsustainable social strain. Simultaneously, the US State Department announced the arrest of a Cuban national accused of working as an unregistered foreign agent for an institute Washington labels a front for intelligence operations, a move that Havana has not publicly addressed.

Analysts in Moscow note that Trump has repeatedly linked Cuba to broader regime-change ambitions, referencing operations in Venezuela and the logistical challenges of Iran. A Bloomberg report cited by Russian business daily Vedomosti indicated the White House aims to make Cuba financially dependent on Washington. For now, the dossier remains frozen: sanctions are intensifying, Havana is pursuing limited economic liberalisation without political concessions, and Trump’s remarks suggest he interprets the reforms as a sign of strategic gain. No bilateral talks have been announced, and the next concrete step is expected to be further US sanctions designations.