The memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran has unlocked a partial resumption of tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, but the waterway is operating far from normal. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright told the Reuters Global Energy Forum that 72 vessels carrying roughly 20 million barrels of crude exited the strait in a single 24-hour period, a volume he described as matching pre-conflict intensity. Maritime tracking firm Kpler, however, recorded 25 commodity-ship transits on Tuesday and 17 by mid-afternoon Wednesday, with a peak of 38 on Monday—still well below the peacetime average of about 120 daily crossings. Oil prices fell more than $3 a barrel, with benchmark crude dipping below $70, as the prospect of restored supply eased the geopolitical risk premium that had built up since February.

The mechanism of the reopening is tightly controlled and far from routine. Ships are avoiding the main shipping channel because of the threat of sea mines, instead hugging the Iranian coast or using a southern route near Oman under military escort. The US Navy ceased its blockade of Iranian ports on 18 June, and the Joint Maritime Information Centre lowered the security threat level from “critical” to “moderate.” The International Maritime Organisation has approved new transit routes—one along the Omani shore for outbound vessels and another in Iranian waters for two-way traffic—and aims to evacuate some 11,000 seafarers still stranded in the Gulf. IMO chief Arsenio Dominguez said the agency hopes to see about 50 vessels a day using these corridors soon.

Contradictory signals from the parties have kept shippers and insurers on edge. Hours after the initial agreement, Iran declared the strait closed again, citing Israeli strikes in Lebanon, before traffic resumed. US Central Command insisted safe passage remained intact, with 55 merchant ships moving 17 million barrels on Saturday. Maritime intelligence firm Windward reported that transits dropped to 12 vessels on Sunday, with neutral and European tonnage absent and five of eight inbound ships running dark. BIMCO’s chief safety officer warned the memorandum “raises several questions” and lacks detail on safe routes, naval protection and emergency response. Chubb’s chief executive described an “hour to hour” risk assessment in a war-zone environment, noting only a narrow channel is usable.

Full normalisation hinges on mine-clearance operations that US officials say will take several weeks. Washington has temporarily lifted sanctions on Iranian oil production, sales and delivery through 21 August, a window that has allowed Iranian-linked tankers to move an estimated 21 million barrels out of the Gulf in June. The next factual milestone to watch is whether the IMO’s evacuation corridors can sustain a daily throughput of 50 vessels and whether mine-clearing allows the broader set of channels to reopen before the sanctions relief expires.