Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to single-digit daily transits this week, according to maritime tracking data, after the collapse of a June ceasefire between the United States and Iran triggered a new round of air strikes and retaliatory attacks on vessels. Data from Kpler, LSEG and MarineTraffic indicate that fewer than ten ships entered or exited the Persian Gulf on some days, down from a pre-conflict average of 110–130 daily crossings. The sharp decline follows Iranian strikes on several commercial ships and US bombardments of 90 Iranian military targets, including air-defence systems and logistics infrastructure along the coast.

Viewed from Washington, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) maintains that Iran does not control the strait and that American forces have facilitated the safe transit of more than 800 commercial vessels and 380 million barrels of crude oil since early May. CENTCOM dismissed Iranian state media claims that shipping is permitted only via routes designated by Tehran. In contrast, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Navy stated that US intervention disrupts the gradual reopening of the waterway and warned that any further interference would provoke an “overwhelming response.” The Iranian parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, declared that the strait will reopen only under Iranian control, while the foreign ministry condemned US strikes on bridges and a railway line near Mashhad as a “flagrant war crime.”

The operational consequences extend beyond the immediate drop in transits. Several vessels have switched off their Automatic Identification System transponders—a practice known as going dark—making it difficult to assess the true volume of traffic. GPS spoofing, which had subsided during ceasefire negotiations, has reappeared around the strait, according to data cited by CNN. Marine insurers have advised shipowners to postpone voyages or reassess coverage, and shipping associations report that war-risk premiums are rising. Japanese transport minister Yasuki Kaneko confirmed that 22 Japan-linked vessels, including six large crude oil tankers, exited the Gulf between 7 and 9 July, leaving only four such vessels inside. QatarEnergy-linked LNG carriers and a Greek-operated tanker were among the few ships observed entering the strait in recent days.

Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar, who helped broker the June memorandum of understanding, are working to bring both sides back to negotiations, regional sources told CNN Brasil. Oman, which has facilitated earlier diplomatic rounds, is also involved. The 14-point ceasefire agreement, signed on 17 June, is now considered void by President Donald Trump, who stated that further talks would be a waste of time. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, responded on social media that Tehran answers “not with rudeness, but with action: without fear and with great courage.” The strait, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption passes, remains a central pressure point. No formal closure has been declared, but the combination of military strikes, navigational interference and heightened insurance costs has effectively paralysed normal commercial movement, with no date set for a resumption of diplomatic contacts.