Peru’s ENFEN commission maintained a “strong” El Niño coastal alert and did not rule out an extraordinary magnitude by late 2026, while Colombia’s outgoing president declared a national disaster. These moves consolidate months of forecasts from the World Meteorological Organization and national institutes indicating that an El Niño event—potentially the strongest since 1950—is forming in the eastern Pacific and will disrupt weather patterns well into 2027.

The warming of coastal waters shifts precipitation: it brings torrential rains and flooding to Ecuador’s and northern Peru’s normally arid coast, while suppressing rainfall over the Colombian Andes and parts of Brazil’s centre-south, where hydropower reservoirs depend on seasonal flows. In Colombia, more than 60% of electricity is hydro-generated; the concurrent scheduled maintenance of the Cartagena regasification terminal—handling 76.6% of Caribbean gas-fired backup capacity—leaves the grid vulnerable. Elevated temperatures across the region also accelerate the reproduction of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, raising the risk of dengue and chikungunya outbreaks.

In Bogotá, the mines and energy ministry asked education and labour counterparts to promote telework and virtual classes during the maintenance window to curb peak demand. Energy industry associations warned that a 700-megawatt generation deficit and delayed transmission projects leave Colombia facing a heightened risk of blackouts. From Lima, the transport regulator Ositrán reported that over 80 bridges on the national road network—most older than 40 years—remain in critical condition, with only six of 99 originally flagged for urgent works repaired since 2018. The agricultural producers’ guild AGAP estimated that more than 8 million people and 2.5 million hectares of cropland face high risk, while artisanal fishers in Lambayeque have been stranded ashore for months by warmer waters and persistent swells.

Brazil’s Ministry of Health, citing projections from Fiocruz’s InfoDengue system, alerted states to a possible surge to 1.7 million dengue cases in 2027, up from a 73% decline this year to June; chikungunya cases could also rebound. In Uruguay, President Orsi told the congress of mayors that the national emergency system Sinae is unifying departmental protocols using impact data dating to 1998, with a coordination meeting scheduled for next week. The emphasis across the region is on early-warning dissemination, pre-positioning of resources, and standardising evacuation criteria.

The ENFEN’s next bulletin will clarify whether the event reaches extraordinary status. Colombia’s regasification plant maintenance runs 30 July–3 August, with a possible extension to 6 August; a failure to secure thermal backup could test grid resilience. Brazil’s health surveillance will release updated arbovirus projections based on evolving climate models. The effectiveness of the declared disaster measures—from bridge closures to school adjustments—will become apparent as the phenomenon intensifies in the austral spring.