Economic pessimism among Russians has reached a 20-year high, with 60% now saying conditions in their city or region are worsening, according to a Gallup survey conducted between March and May. The share of respondents who see their living standards declining also hit a record 56%. Trust in the army fell to 66% from 80% in 2022, and confidence in government dropped to 53%. Only 35% consider it a good time to look for work, down from 51% a year earlier. The poll closed before a June fuel crisis triggered by strikes on refineries, suggesting the mood may have darkened further.

That ground-level distress is mirrored in corporate Russia. A June survey by the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs shows 24% of firms reporting a worsening financial position, while only 6% saw improvement. The share complaining of deteriorating relations with banks tripled to 14% in a single month. Businesses point to high borrowing costs, tighter collateral requirements, and a central bank rate cut of just 25 basis points to 14.25% that fell short of expectations. Analysts in Moscow note that rising loan arrears are forcing banks to increase provisions, making them more cautious.

By contrast, the Reserve Bank of India’s latest Financial Stability Report paints a picture of a banking system with ample shock absorbers. Under a severe adverse scenario, gross non-performing assets could rise to 3.8–4.1% from 1.8% in March 2026, while core equity capital would slip to 11.6%—still above regulatory minima. The central bank, however, flagged rising policyholder grievances and surrender rates in the insurance sector, and warned that AI-enabled cyberattacks are the biggest near-term threat to financial stability. Viewed from Mumbai, the system appears robust, but operational and conduct risks are drawing sharper scrutiny.

In Southeast Asia and West Africa, the focus is shifting from resilience to relevance. Indonesia’s stock exchange is pushing for higher investor quality alongside a retail investor base that now exceeds 28 million, while Bank Jakarta’s chief describes a landscape where the cost of funds is rising and digital transformation is no longer optional. In Ghana, banks are moving beyond access to impact: a digital salary-advance product launched in July 2026 has already disbursed 1 billion cedis, allowing workers to tap up to 80% of net pay before payday without visiting a branch. The next milestone for Russia will be whether the central bank can arrest the slide in business sentiment at its upcoming rate meeting, while Indian regulators prepare to address insurance conduct and cyber defences.