Russia imported 5,170 tonnes of aviation kerosene from Belarus in May, nearly four times the volume of a year earlier, and a further 2,600 tonnes in the first ten days of June, according to data from the Centre for Price Indices. The surge follows a series of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil-processing infrastructure, most notably the mid-June strikes on the Moscow refinery in Kapotnya, which industry sources say will not resume operations before the end of 2026. The plant historically supplied a large share of the capital’s aviation hub, and its outage has created what logistics analysts in Moscow describe as a bottleneck in fuel delivery to airports.

The government responded on 1 June by imposing a temporary ban on aviation-fuel exports, a measure officials said was needed to stabilise the domestic market. Yet the disruption has already spread beyond jet fuel. Petrol and diesel shortages are now reported in at least 53 of Russia’s regions, with the most acute pressure visible in the Central, Volga and Southern federal districts. In annexed Crimea, fuel sales to the public were halted entirely, reserved only for state services and critical needs. Yandex search data analysed by independent media show that queries for “petrol” in the worst-affected regions have risen ten- to twenty-fold compared with the same period last year, while Siberia has so far registered only a modest increase in interest, suggesting the crisis remains geographically uneven.

Viewed from Moscow, the official line is one of reassurance. A senior lawmaker, Sergei Mironov, insisted that sufficient petrol exists and blamed artificial shortages on profiteering, while the deputy prime minister for energy told state media he saw no problems with aviation-fuel supply. That contrasts with warnings from the airline Azimuth, which told its industry association that a critical fuel deficit threatened flights on Caucasus routes. Meanwhile, on the Ukrainian side, a fuel-market consultant in Kyiv reported that drivers of fuel trucks are refusing to enter front-line areas because of constant drone threats, creating localised supply difficulties for Ukrainian forces.

Moscow-based energy analysts view the Belarusian imports as a temporary fix to balance the market during the high-demand summer season, with consumption expected to ease by October. The longer-term question is whether domestic refining capacity can be secured. If the shortfall persists, analysts at the Financial University say, Russia may begin importing aviation fuel from outside the Eurasian Economic Union. The next factual milestone is the end of the summer travel season, when seasonal demand will test whether the import surge was a one-off measure or the start of a structural shift in Russia’s fuel-supply map.