Russia has begun seaborne imports of gasoline from India, a remarkable turnabout for one of the world’s largest energy exporters, as a sustained Ukrainian drone campaign has knocked out roughly 28% of its oil refining capacity. The attacks have slashed domestic gasoline production by 17% year-on-year, driving June crude processing volumes to their lowest in more than two decades and forcing President Vladimir Putin to acknowledge “problems” in a televised address.

Fuel shortages have spread from occupied Crimea to the capital, with hours-long queues at filling stations, panic buying, and rationing introduced in multiple regions. The Kremlin has also quietly authorised the production of lower-grade Euro-2 gasoline, a fuel banned since 2013, to stretch supplies. Industry sources in Moscow say Russia plans to import up to 400,000 tonnes of gasoline per month from various countries, with at least 60,000 tonnes already shipped from India and Belarus tripling its rail deliveries since May. Yet these volumes remain a fraction of the 110,000 tonnes consumed daily during the summer peak, and seaborne cargoes take weeks to arrive.

Viewed from Kyiv, the strikes are a deliberate “drone sanctions” campaign designed to deprive Moscow of export revenue and bring the war’s economic cost home to ordinary Russians. The strategy is producing measurable strain: fuel prices have surged, a black market has emerged in Crimea, and the Kremlin has been forced to amend its tax code to subsidise imports based on Indian delivery costs. In a circular trade, India’s imports of Russian crude hit a record 2.7 million barrels per day in June, with some of that oil returning as refined gasoline.

The first Indian gasoline tankers are expected to dock in the coming weeks, and the government’s ability to stabilise the domestic fuel market will be tested as summer demand intensifies. The next factual milestone is whether these emergency measures can prevent a deeper crisis ahead of September’s legislative elections, which Moscow uses as a domestic legitimacy exercise.