The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration confirmed that El Niño has consolidated, with equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures at least 0.5°C above average for several months. Models indicate a high chance of strengthening through late 2026 into early 2027, possibly ranking among the most intense since 1950. Peru declared a 60-day state of emergency in 796 districts—40% of the country—citing a “very high” risk of heavy rains and floods. Colombia’s environment ministry listed ten departments, including Cundinamarca and Antioquia, with the highest probability of drought, based on the 2023-24 event.

The warming of the central and eastern Pacific alters global circulation, producing divergent regional effects. In South America, it typically brings dry conditions to Colombia’s Andean and Caribbean zones and to Brazil’s north and northeast, while triggering intense rainfall on the Peruvian and Ecuadorian coasts and in southern Brazil. A study in Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters analysing global fire emissions from 2000 to 2023 found that during El Niño, wildfire-linked PM2.5 concentrations rose by 49–116% in North America, 18–43% in Australia, and 28–71% in Indonesia, driven by heat and rainfall deficits. The WHO has previously linked such fires to hazardous air quality affecting tens of millions, as in Indonesia’s 2015 crisis.

Economic pressures are building. Analysts at Santander in São Paulo view the risks for Brazilian companies as manageable but uneven: beverage and utility firms may gain, while agribusiness and rural credit face headwinds. In Colombia, the Hidroituango hydroelectric manager has proposed advancing clocks by one hour to shift peak electricity demand into daylight, estimating a saving of about 2% of national consumption. He also urged the incoming government to convene an emergency energy working group before taking office on 7 August, noting that more than half of the country’s thermal plants are offline. Peru’s 2017 El Niño caused losses of 2% of GDP, and its fishing industry already reports that warming waters are displacing anchoveta.

Preparations are accelerating. Peru’s emergency decree allows regional and local authorities to take extraordinary measures with existing budgets. In Brazil, Rio de Janeiro state is coordinating municipal contingency plans for the 2026-27 summer, when projections give a 96% probability of El Niño conditions, including heatwaves, drought and wildfire risk. The state fire department launched Operation Extinctus 2026, and water and energy utilities expanded monitoring. The next milestone is the 7 August deadline for Colombia’s proposed energy roundtable, a test of whether pre-emptive planning can avert rationing of the kind last seen in 1992.