President Vladimir Putin’s job approval rating fell by 3.5 percentage points in a single week, the sharpest decline recorded by the state-owned pollster VTsIOM since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The survey, conducted from 22 to 28 June, put approval at 66.9%, down from 70.4% the previous week, while the share of respondents expressing disapproval rose to 21.3%. A separate trust rating dropped from 76.7% to 73.3%. The independent Levada Center reported a slide to 74% in June from 79% in May, and the Kremlin-linked FOM pollster recorded a five-point fall in positive assessments of Putin’s work since mid-June, to 70%. All three agencies, which use different methodologies, now show a sustained downward trend that began in the spring.

The Kremlin has responded by having Putin acknowledge the fuel shortages publicly for the first time, though in a carefully managed format: an interview with a state television journalist rather than a national address or government meeting. Moscow-based political analyst Ilya Grashchenkov described the fuel crisis as having “ceased to be an economic problem” and become a test of the state’s ability to manage a crisis affecting daily life. Journalist Farida Rustamova, cited by Italian agency AGI, suggested the Kremlin calculated that ignoring the shortages would make the president appear “too detached from reality”. The upcoming State Duma elections in September are seen by analysts in Russia as a factor behind the decision to address the issue, even as Putin quickly pivoted to military successes and peace negotiations.

The decline in personal ratings is mirrored in falling trust in the government and Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. VTsIOM recorded a drop in trust for Mishustin to 55.7%, while FOM showed a slide to 49%. Levada’s monthly data revealed that only 52% of Russians now believe the country is moving in the right direction, down nine points, while 35% say it is on the wrong path – a level of pessimism not seen since the pension reform protests of 2018 and the partial mobilisation of 2022. A Gallup poll conducted from March to May found that 60% of Russians think the economic situation in their area is worsening, the highest share in two decades. Analysts in Europe note that the reluctance of many Russians to voice criticism to pollsters makes these shifts more significant, as they suggest discontent is spreading even among those willing to answer.

The erosion of public confidence coincides with a fuel crisis that has produced long queues at petrol stations and rationing in multiple regions, the result of sustained Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries. Frequent air attacks on Moscow and other cities far from the front line, together with internet restrictions and Telegram blockages, have added to a climate of anxiety. The FOM pollster found that 70% of respondents say a mood of anxiety prevails among their acquaintances, a level approached only during the autumn 2022 mobilisation. With the Duma elections approaching, the Kremlin faces a population whose economic grievances are increasingly visible, even as the political system offers few channels for protest. The state pollster VTsIOM has altered its methodology to include face-to-face interviews, a move that initially lifted the president’s numbers but has not halted the overall decline.