OPEC has revised upwards its long-term forecast for global oil demand, projecting consumption of 124 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2050, an increase of 1.1 million bpd from last year’s estimate. In its annual World Oil Outlook, published on Thursday, the organisation left its 2030 projection unchanged at 113.3 million bpd, up from 105.1 million bpd this year, but argued that there is no sign of demand peaking before mid-century. The report attributes the bullish outlook to a shift in the energy policy landscape, particularly in the United States and parts of Europe, alongside sustained economic expansion in India, the Middle East and Africa.

The stance puts OPEC at odds with the Paris-based International Energy Agency, which has long forecast a much earlier plateau in oil consumption, driven by the accelerating uptake of renewables and electric vehicles. Viewed from Vienna, where OPEC’s secretariat is based, the cartel’s outlook reflects not only the fiscal reliance of its member states on petroleum revenues but also a conviction that the political winds are turning back in favour of fossil fuels. The report explicitly cites changes in government regulation in Washington and a more pragmatic approach in European capitals as factors that will underpin demand growth for decades.

On the supply side, the report singles out Brazil as one of the main engines of non-OPEC production expansion in the coming years, alongside Qatar, Argentina and Canada. Brazil’s deepwater pre-salt fields are expected to contribute significantly to global liquids output outside the OPEC+ framework, reinforcing Latin America’s growing weight in international energy markets. For Brasília, the projection validates its strategy of leveraging vast offshore reserves to become a top-tier exporter.

The widening gap between OPEC’s forecasts and those of other institutions underscores the deep uncertainty surrounding the pace of the energy transition. While the cartel’s analysis may be coloured by its members’ interests, its emphasis on policy reversals and the inexorable rise of developing-world consumption suggests that the debate over peak oil is far from settled. For now, OPEC is wagering that hydrocarbons will remain the backbone of the global economy well into the second half of the century.