The collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire has driven oil prices to their sharpest weekly rise in three months, with Brent crude climbing nearly 12% to trade above $85 a barrel on Friday. The United States reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports and launched successive waves of air strikes against military targets along Iran’s southern coast and around Tehran, while Iran retaliated with drone and missile attacks on US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the conduit for a fifth of global oil consumption, has slowed markedly, and the International Energy Agency’s executive director, Fatih Birol, warned that “oil security is still a critical issue” and expressed concern if the situation does not improve in the coming weeks.

The supply disruption is now threatening to spread. Iran has instructed its Houthi allies in Yemen to be ready to close the Bab el-Mandeb strait at the southern end of the Red Sea should the US strike Iranian energy infrastructure, according to three sources cited by Reuters. That route carried 7.4 million barrels per day of crude and products in June, roughly 7% of global production, as Saudi Arabia increasingly diverted exports away from the blocked Hormuz. Analysts at Commerzbank noted that a simultaneous closure of both chokepoints would “significantly strengthen supply chain pressures, increase tanker availability constraints and raise insurance premiums.” Alex Hodes, a director at brokerage StoneX, described the dual threat as a “serious risk of disruption to both of the Middle East’s main oil export routes at the same time.”

Viewed from Moscow, the price spike and the redirection of trade flows have opened a window of opportunity. Russian seaborne crude exports hit a record of nearly 3 million barrels per day in June, with India alone purchasing 2.6–2.7 million barrels per day, more than half of its total imports. By contrast, in Abuja, the renewed rally has dashed hopes that the earlier price decline would translate into lower pump prices; Nigerian petrol costs remain above N1,000 per litre, and the competition regulator has warned against exploitative pricing. In Washington, softer-than-expected inflation data had pushed the dollar lower and led markets to rule out a Federal Reserve rate increase this month, but the conflict is stoking concerns that higher energy costs could reignite price pressures later in the year.

The next factual milestone is the outcome of regional mediation. Qatar, Egypt and Pakistan are attempting to broker a new ceasefire, but President Trump has warned that the US could begin striking Iran’s power plants and bridges next week if diplomacy fails. Whether those talks gain traction or the conflict widens further will determine if the geopolitical premium in oil prices persists or rapidly unwinds.