Nigeria’s crude oil production climbed to 1.56 million barrels per day in June, the highest level since April 2020 and equivalent to 104 percent of its OPEC quota, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission reported on Sunday. Including condensates, total liquids output averaged 1.735 million barrels per day, marking a fourth consecutive month of growth and a 2.2 percent month-on-month increase. The figures shift the supply picture for the Atlantic Basin, where Nigerian barrels compete directly with US and North Sea grades, and come as other OPEC+ producers also expand output.

The improvement was driven by stable operations across most producing assets and the absence of major pipeline outages, the commission said. Years of crude theft and infrastructure sabotage had depressed Nigerian output, but a combination of security interventions and the exit of international oil majors from onshore fields in favour of local operators has helped restore reliability. Peak daily combined production reached 1.89 million barrels per day during the month, a level that Abuja views as evidence the country can meet its medium-term target of two million barrels per day.

Viewed from Vienna, the Nigerian data add to a broader pattern of rising supply from OPEC+ members. The UAE produced a record 4.1 million barrels per day of crude in April, according to the International Energy Agency, with total supply including condensates reaching 4.8 million barrels per day. Iran’s output rose by 155,000 barrels per day month-on-month in June to 2.44 million barrels per day, OPEC’s secondary sources showed, even as the group revised down its 2026 global demand growth forecast by 200,000 barrels per day. The UAE, which formally exited OPEC in May, accounted for more than half of the monthly increase in supply from non-OPEC+ countries in April, the IEA noted, while the partial recovery of shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz supported Gulf exports.

The next milestone for Nigeria will be sustaining output above the 1.5 million barrel per day quota, a level it struggled to reach for years. The NUPRC attributed the June performance to improved evacuation efficiency and effective management of scheduled maintenance, but the durability of the gains will depend on continued pipeline security and investment in ageing infrastructure. For the wider market, the simultaneous supply increases from Nigeria, the UAE and Iran arrive as OPEC recalibrates its demand outlook, leaving traders in London and Singapore to weigh whether the group’s production discipline can absorb the additional barrels without triggering a price response.