The US Climate Prediction Center’s 9 July update confirmed that El Niño is strengthening, with a 97% probability of remaining at strong or very strong levels through December and an 81% chance of reaching “very strong” intensity. The immediate effect is a sharp reduction in expected Atlantic hurricane activity: Colorado State University now forecasts only nine named storms and four hurricanes, well below the historical average, as increased wind shear over the tropical Atlantic disrupts cyclone formation. The probability of a major hurricane making landfall on the US coast has fallen to 17%, with the Gulf Coast at just 8%.

In Mexico, forecasters anticipate a bifurcated season: a drier-than-normal mid-summer across the centre and south, followed by a possible surge of Pacific cyclones and abundant rainfall in the west and centre during autumn. The pattern, which some analysts compare to the 1997–98 event, could bring a colder, wetter winter with heavy snowfall, though such analogies do not guarantee a repeat. For California, the outlook is for above-average winter precipitation, raising the risk of flash floods and landslides, while the Pacific Northwest faces drier conditions.

South America is already registering economic pressure. In Brazil’s Paraná state, the main cassava-producing region, agronomists warn that El Niño-driven excess moisture is accelerating crop diseases such as bacteriosis and anthracnose, reducing root supply just as Chinese demand for gluten-free starch rises. Prices have climbed, and the squeeze is compounded by farmers abandoning the crop due to low profitability. Simultaneously, Brazil’s electricity sector is bracing for lower rainfall in the key Southeast/Centre-West reservoir system. The national grid operator is discussing preventive dispatch of thermal plants outside the merit order to conserve water, a move that analysts in Rio de Janeiro say will inevitably push up consumer tariffs, with red-flag surcharges likely before year-end.

India’s monsoon has entered a break phase, with meteorologists attributing the lull to El Niño’s suppression of rain-bearing systems. The absence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal has left central and western regions dry, though a revival is possible in late July if those features re-emerge. The next factual milestone is the October–December period, when El Niño is expected to peak; its persistence into early 2027 will determine whether the current disruptions extend into another agricultural cycle and a second year of elevated energy costs.