Ahead of the NATO summit in Ankara on 7–8 July, the United States has warned that some allies are falling short of the commitment to spend 5% of GDP on defence and that Washington may consider measures against them. Ambassador Matthew Whitaker, the US permanent representative to the alliance, told journalists that while Poland, the Nordic and Baltic states, and Germany are leading, others “are lagging behind” because they either spend too little or lack a credible path to the target. He singled out Spain, stating that President Donald Trump is “disappointed” both by Madrid’s refusal to raise spending beyond 2.1% of GDP and by its denial of base access and overflight rights during the US-led operation against Iran. Whitaker did not rule out punitive steps, though he declined to specify what form they might take.

Italy’s government convened a preparatory meeting chaired by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni with the foreign, defence, and economy ministers. Italian officials confirmed that Rome will present a defence spending figure of 2.8% of GDP, an increase driven largely by domestic security expenditures. Government sources also denied a report in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung that Italy had opposed language in the summit declaration committing allies to finance arms deliveries to Ukraine beyond 2027. According to these sources, Italy’s initial reservation concerned only whether to include a specific financial figure in the text, and the objection was withdrawn days ago. Rome’s aim, they said, is to preserve a formulation that does not close the door to negotiations with Moscow. Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz, speaking in Berlin, said Europe approaches the summit “with total confidence” and stressed mutual dependence between the United States and its European allies.

Viewed from within the alliance, the summit is framed as a “report card” on the Defence Commitment adopted at The Hague last year, which set the 5% goal by 2035. Since then, allies have pledged nearly $120 billion in additional defence spending, roughly half of it on US-manufactured equipment. A NATO source told Reuters that European members have filled almost all capability gaps left by the United States in the alliance’s defence plans, with the exception of strategic bombers, where Washington will provide one aircraft instead of two. Secretary General Mark Rutte acknowledged “a certain disappointment” in the White House over European positions on Iran but argued that Europe remains the only large-scale platform for projecting American power, with up to 5,000 US sorties flown from European bases.

The summit is also expected to feature the first NATO Defence Industry Forum, with Washington cautioning against European protectionist measures that could exclude US firms. Whitaker said the final communiqué may contain surprises and that substantial announcements on Ukraine are anticipated, including through the Purl programme that allows allies to purchase American weapons systems for transfer to Kyiv. Bilateral encounters between Trump and allied leaders, including Meloni and Spain’s Pedro Sánchez, remain uncertain. The gathering opens in Ankara on 7 July.