More than 100,000 people have been killed in Myanmar since the 2021 military coup, according to data released this week by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), while a separate six-year investigation by the Observatory for Religious Freedom in Africa (ORFA) documents 79,323 terrorism-related deaths in Nigeria between 2020 and 2025. The combined toll of over 180,000 fatalities underscores the intensity of two conflicts that analysts in Asia and Africa describe as among the world’s most lethal, with civilians bearing the heaviest burden. In Myanmar, ACLED’s tally of 100,114 dead includes both combatants and non-combatants, while Amnesty International’s annual assessment records more than 7,000 civilian deaths in 2025 alone—the highest figure since the coup—and notes that over 3.5 million people remain internally displaced.

In Myanmar, the military junta that ousted the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi faces a broad armed opposition comprising pro-democracy People’s Defence Forces and ethnic minority militias. Amnesty International’s report, cited by regional media, documents a more than 50 per cent increase in airstrikes compared with 2024, with attacks hitting schools, hospitals and populated areas. The organisation also records forced labour, military conscription, and deaths in custody from torture and medical neglect. The United Nations estimates that over 3.7 million people are now displaced within the country’s borders. Viewed from Southeast Asian diplomatic circles, the conflict is regarded as Asia’s most deadly active war, with no official casualty count and widely varying estimates. The junta has announced elections for December, while enacting laws that punish criticism with imprisonment or the death penalty, and the suspension of US foreign aid has led to the closure of hospitals in refugee camps and increased food insecurity along the Thai border.

In Nigeria, the ORFA report challenges the prevailing international focus on Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP). It attributes 44 per cent of civilian killings—18,577 deaths—to armed groups it classifies as “Fulani Terror Groups,” compared with 12 per cent (4,941 deaths) attributed to Boko Haram and ISWAP combined. The investigation, which cross-referenced attack patterns across five data streams, also found that 34,773 civilians were abducted over the six-year period, with Fulani militias and unidentified groups responsible for 43 per cent and 49 per cent of abductions respectively. ORFA researchers, speaking from Jos, emphasised a religious dimension: 28,551 Christians were killed compared with 13,224 Muslims, and Christian hostages faced higher ransoms, longer negotiations, and greater risk of execution. The organisation stressed that it distinguishes between armed groups and the Fulani ethnic population, the vast majority of whom are not involved in violence.

Separately, the Nigerian Correctional Service (NCoS) reported that 1,271 offenders are currently serving non-custodial sentences nationwide, a measure introduced under the 2019 Correctional Service Act to decongest prisons. Community service accounts for 1,038 of these cases, with smaller numbers on parole, probation, or in restorative justice programmes. The initiative, which aligns with the Administration of Criminal Justice Act 2015, has expanded gradually from the Federal Capital Territory and Lagos to states including Adamawa, Anambra, and Plateau. Officials in Abuja present the programme as a response to chronic overcrowding in custodial centres, though the scale of violence documented by ORFA—an average of seven attacks and 36 deaths per day—indicates the broader challenges facing the criminal justice system.

The state of both dossiers remains fluid. In Myanmar, the junta’s planned December elections are proceeding amid intensifying conflict and international condemnation, while humanitarian agencies warn that aid cuts are deepening the crisis. In Nigeria, ORFA has called for broader recognition of the religious dimensions of violence, arguing that policy responses remain incomplete without such an accounting. The UN and rights groups continue to document abuses in both countries, and no formal peace process is currently underway in either theatre.