More than 25,000 personnel from 31 nations are conducting the Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) exercise in Hawaii while three other major US-led drills unfold across the Western Pacific, coinciding with Chinese coast guard patrols off Taiwan’s east coast and a New Zealand assessment that Chinese naval activity will become a “persistent feature” of the region. The overlapping operations, which include the first deployment of the US Typhon mid-range missile system during Valiant Shield in Guam and Japanese airborne drops in the Philippines’ northernmost Batanes province, mark a period of concentrated military signalling on China’s maritime periphery.

Viewed from Washington and allied capitals, the exercises represent a deliberate effort to reinforce deterrence and distribute operational burdens. The Kamandag mission in the Philippines, Resolute Dragon in Japan and Valiant Shield in the Marianas are designed to improve interoperability and intelligence-sharing, with analysts noting a shift in US strategy that enables partners to play a greater role in regional security. The inclusion of Japan’s elite airborne brigade in Batanes, a province astride the Luzon Strait, underscores the operational focus on the first island chain, a geographic concept that has regained prominence in Pentagon planning.

Beijing maintains that its own activities are lawful exercises of jurisdiction. The foreign ministry described coast guard patrols in the waters east of Taiwan as legitimate enforcement actions under both domestic law and the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, and accused the Democratic Progressive Party administration in Taipei of colluding with external forces to spread separatist narratives. A separate New Zealand defence and foreign ministry report, obtained under freedom-of-information laws, assessed that a Chinese naval task group’s December 2025 deployment in the Philippine Sea was consistent with a decade-long gradual expansion of China’s maritime security presence in the South Pacific, and that a February 2025 transit of the Tasman Sea occurred in accordance with international law.

The New Zealand assessment, circulated to Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and his security cabinet, adds a calibrated official voice to the debate. While it warns that ballistic missile tests and naval incursions will be a persistent characteristic of the strategic environment, it also notes that the live-fire notification during the Tasman Sea deployment did not meet best international practice and forced airlines to reroute. The document’s measured tone contrasts with the sharper public criticism voiced by the United States, Britain, France and Germany over the Taiwan patrols, which they argue threaten regional stability and freedom of navigation.

RIMPAC is scheduled to continue until 31 July, while the other exercises are concluding this week. The New Zealand report signals that Wellington expects the pattern of Chinese naval activity to endure, and the near-simultaneous drills suggest that the US and its allies intend to maintain a persistent countervailing presence. No formal diplomatic process is under way to address the broader strategic friction, leaving the Pacific theatre in a phase of sustained competitive posturing.