Morocco’s government has revised its 2026 economic growth forecast upward to 5.3 per cent, from the 4.6 per cent assumed in the budget, driven by a 15.1 per cent surge in agricultural value added after years of drought. Inflation, which peaked at 6.6 per cent in 2022, averaged just 0.4 per cent in the first half of 2026, with core inflation turning negative, according to the finance ministry’s presentation to parliament on Wednesday. The improved outlook, supported by a rebound in investment and domestic demand, has allowed the central bank to maintain its key rate at 2.25 per cent after cumulative cuts of 75 basis points since mid-2024.

The ministry reported that ordinary revenues rose 15.4 per cent year-on-year by end-June, with corporate tax receipts up 26.2 per cent, while the budget deficit is projected to narrow to 3 per cent of GDP. The government attributes the disinflation to improved supply conditions and subsidies on basic goods, though it warns that vigilance is needed against imported energy-price pressures and supply-chain disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict. The three-year budget plan through 2029 targets growth of around 4.1–4.2 per cent, assuming a cereal harvest of 70 million quintals and oil at $70 a barrel.

In Ghana, the opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP) has raised concerns ahead of Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson’s mid-year budget review on Thursday, questioning the sustainability of recent fiscal gains. The NPP’s Kojo Oppong Nkrumah noted that a 2025 primary surplus of 2.6 per cent of GDP was achieved by compressing expenditure by 13.8 per cent, while revenue missed its revised target by 4.7 per cent. He also pointed to a $1.2 billion decline in international reserves, despite government claims of no foreign-exchange intervention, and argued that growth is being propped up by elevated global gold prices rather than structural reforms, describing it as a ‘galamsey economy’.

Brazil’s National Confederation of Industry (CNI) kept its 2026 GDP growth forecast at 2 per cent, driven by extractive industries and agribusiness, but raised its inflation projection to 5 per cent and warned that high interest rates and fiscal fragility will limit a stronger recovery. The CNI now expects the Selic rate to end the year at 13.75 per cent, up from a previous forecast of 12.75 per cent, as persistent inflation and a deteriorating fiscal outlook delay monetary easing.

The immediate focus turns to Accra, where the finance minister’s presentation is expected to clarify the government’s debt trajectory, reserve position, and plans under the IMF’s Policy Coordination Instrument. In Rabat, the government will submit the 2027 draft budget based on the new medium-term framework, while in Brasília, markets await the central bank’s next move amid sticky inflation.