Mexico’s gross fixed investment climbed 5.9% in April from a year earlier, ending a streak of declines that had lasted nearly a year and a half, according to the national statistics institute Inegi. The seasonally adjusted measure rose 5.1% on the year and jumped 4.0% from March, driven by a 6.5% monthly surge in construction. The turnaround follows a 0.6% contraction in Mexican GDP during the first quarter of 2026 and a 6.7% drop in fixed investment for all of 2025, making the April print the first clear signal that capital formation is stabilising after a prolonged post-pandemic adjustment.

The construction rebound was broad, with residential building up 16.7% year-on-year in the adjusted series and non-residential edging 1.1% higher. Machinery and equipment spending rose only 0.9%, held back by a 10.6% slump in purchases of domestically produced capital goods even as imported machinery jumped 8.8%. Both private and public investment contributed to the recovery, rising 5.7% and 7.5% respectively in unadjusted terms. Still, cumulative investment for January through April remained 1.0% below the same period a year earlier, underscoring the fragility of the upturn.

In Japan, real wages increased 1.4% in May from a year earlier, the fifth consecutive monthly gain, as nominal pay rose 3.2% and consumer price inflation slowed to 1.7% following the abolition of a provisional gasoline tax surcharge. Regular base pay grew 3.0%, while hourly wages for part-time workers climbed 4.9%. Yet household spending dipped 0.4% in real terms, the sixth straight monthly decline. The internal affairs ministry attributed the fall partly to a 21.6% drop in automobile purchases, which had spiked in April ahead of an environmental tax change, and to lower electricity and gas bills amid warmer weather.

Spending patterns revealed a consumer pivot toward durable goods: outlays on furniture and household goods surged 23%, and purchases of household durables such as air conditioners soared 51.8%. Food spending rose 2.4%, the first increase in four months, though rice purchases fell for a seventh month. Japanese households also continued to stockpile plastic bags and wraps, a behaviour linked to supply concerns stemming from Middle East tensions. The divergence between rising real wages and falling overall expenditure suggests that higher pay has yet to translate into broader consumption, with one-off tax effects and weather distorting the monthly figures.

Viewed from Mexico City, the investment recovery will be tested in coming months as the cumulative year-to-date figure remains negative and private investment still lags public spending. In Tokyo, the focus shifts to whether sustained nominal wage growth can eventually lift household spending once the distortions from tax changes and weather fade. The next round of monthly data for both economies will indicate whether these April and May signals mark a genuine turning point or a temporary interruption of underlying weakness.