Colombia’s statistics agency is set to release June inflation figures that analysts expect will push the annual rate above 6% for the first time in nearly two years. A Citi survey of market participants points to a consensus forecast of 6.08%, with estimates ranging from 5.93% to 6.16%. The last time inflation exceeded 6% was in August 2024, when it reached 6.12%. The Banco de la República, which already raised its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to 12% in late June, has warned that inflation expectations remain significantly above its 2–4% target range, with its technical staff projecting a year-end rate of 6.5% and a return to target only by late 2028.

The Colombian data lands against a backdrop of stubborn price pressures across several economies. In May, Colombia’s 5.8% annual inflation was the second highest among the 38 OECD members, surpassed only by Turkey’s 32.6%, and well above the bloc’s average of 4.6%. Taiwan’s consumer price index rose 2.6% in June, a 17-month high, driven by a 19.45% jump in fuel costs and a 10.05% increase in vegetable prices. In the United States, the New York Federal Reserve’s survey showed one-year-ahead inflation expectations climbing to 3.7%, the highest since September 2023. Mexico presents a more ambiguous picture: analysts are evenly split on whether Banxico’s next move will be a hike or a cut from the current 6.50% rate, with inflation projected at 4.15% for 2026.

Underlying the headline numbers are both cyclical and structural factors. In Colombia, robust domestic consumption, rising housing and utility costs, and the indexation of wages to last year’s minimum salary increase are fuelling price growth, while the potential onset of an El Niño weather pattern threatens to push food and energy costs higher. Taiwan’s spike reflects the pass-through of global energy prices and weather-related food supply disruptions. Across the OECD, energy inflation accelerated to 15.8% in May, up from 13.2% in April, even as food inflation moderated. Structural weaknesses compound the challenge in Colombia: a separate analysis by Visual Capitalist shows that a Colombian worker needs 86 hours to earn the equivalent of US$1,000, the most among 38 economies studied, underscoring low productivity and high informality that amplify the pain of rising prices.

The immediate focus turns to the DANE release, which will confirm whether Colombia has indeed re-entered the 6%-plus inflation zone. The central bank’s next policy meeting will then assess the data against its tightening stance. In Mexico, the next rate decision is not expected until December at the earliest, with the direction still contested. For the US Federal Reserve, the uptick in consumer expectations adds a note of caution as it navigates its own policy path.