Regional mediators including Qatar, Egypt and Pakistan have presented a 10-day ceasefire proposal to Washington and Tehran, according to officials cited by Axios and CNN. The initiative, which also involves other undisclosed regional actors, calls for an immediate halt to hostilities, the full reopening of both shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz, and a window for the two sides to revive a collapsing memorandum of understanding. The US administration is studying the proposal and has asked Israel to refrain from actions that could close the diplomatic track, while simultaneously preparing for a possible breakdown of talks.

Viewed from Washington, the White House is at a decision point. US officials told Fox News that President Donald Trump is expected to decide within days whether to escalate to a full-scale military campaign, potentially in coordination with Israel, or to pursue the ceasefire. The Pentagon has deployed additional fighter jets and refuelling tankers to the region, moves described as preparatory. Israeli military sources indicate that the Israel Defense Forces are on high alert and ready for a coordinated full-scale operation if ordered. Tehran has not yet accepted the ceasefire, and regional mediators assess that both sides may be seeking to improve their battlefield positions before committing to a pause.

The military situation on the ground has grown more complex. Since 7 July, the US has conducted nightly airstrikes targeting Iranian military installations near the Strait of Hormuz, while imposing a naval blockade on Iranian ports. Iran has responded with attacks on commercial vessels and on a US base in Jordan that killed at least two American soldiers, prompting Trump to vow retaliation. The Iran-backed Ansarallah movement in Yemen has declared a blockade of Saudi ports, opening a new front. Oil prices briefly surged past $90 per barrel, and domestic pressure on the Trump administration has intensified. The proposed ceasefire would temporarily halt this cycle, allowing negotiations on a long-term mechanism for safe passage, with one option being a fee-based model for maritime services, similar to arrangements in the Strait of Malacca.

The current escalation traces back to the collapse of the Islamabad memorandum of understanding, which the US accuses Iran of violating through attacks on shipping. Iran maintains that security in the Strait of Hormuz should be ensured by coastal states without foreign military intervention. The mediators’ proposal builds on discussions held in Muscat on 11 July, where Washington demanded a public Iranian commitment to keep the strait open. Those talks ended without agreement. The coming days are expected to determine whether the diplomatic track gains traction or whether the conflict widens into a joint US-Israeli campaign. No final decision has been announced by either Washington or Tehran.