Italy’s health ministry placed seven cities under its highest heat alert on Wednesday as the third major heatwave of the summer intensified, with forecasters predicting temperatures of up to 45°C in inland Sardinia. The red warnings, signalling a risk to the entire population, cover Florence, Perugia, Brescia, Turin, Bologna, Frosinone and Rome, while nine other cities are under a lower-level orange alert. According to the ministry’s bulletin, the number of red-flagged cities rose from four on Tuesday, and only three of the 27 monitored centres—all in the south—remained free of any heat warning.

The current wave follows a deadly heat episode in late June. A Politico analysis cited by Italian media, drawing on preliminary official data and researcher estimates, suggests up to 14,000 excess deaths across six western European countries between 18 June and 1 July. Germany reported around 6,800 excess deaths, France over 2,000, and England and Wales approximately 2,200. The European mortality monitoring system EuroMOMO recorded more than 10,600 excess deaths in 27 countries during the last week of June. In the United Kingdom, where the Met Office has extended amber and yellow heat health alerts, authorities have already attributed 2,700 excess deaths to high temperatures in May and June. Wildfires are compounding the strain: in France, a blaze in the Fontainebleau forest near Paris has consumed 1,900 hectares, while in north Wales hundreds of residents were evacuated from a hill fire in Conwy. German sources report 99 drowning deaths in June alone, a figure linked to the heat.

Forecasts diverge on when the heat will break. Italian meteorologists suggest a temporary weakening of the high-pressure system this weekend, bringing thunderstorms and a temperature drop of 4–5°C, though values would remain well above seasonal norms. Some models, however, indicate a possible fourth heatwave from 24 July. A climatologist at the University of Camerino described the current event as “anomalous” due to the unusual southwest-northeast axis of the hot air mass and the persistence of tropical nights with minimums above 25°C. That orientation spared Italy the most extreme temperatures that hit Spain and France earlier, but it has left the Po basin in severe drought, with Piedmont requesting emergency water supplies from neighbouring regions. In Iran, meteorological authorities issued yellow warnings for 17 provinces, with Tehran expected to reach 41°C, while Israel’s weather service reported rising heat stress.

As of Tuesday, the Italian health ministry’s bulletin confirmed four cities at red alert, rising to seven on Wednesday. The UK’s amber and yellow heat health alerts remain in place until Wednesday. French firefighters, supported by Canadair aircraft, said they hoped to contain the Fontainebleau fire by the end of the day. All mortality figures are provisional, and investigations into the full health impact of the ongoing heatwave are continuing.