A framework agreement signed in Washington between Israel and Lebanon on 27 June conditions any Israeli withdrawal from occupied southern Lebanon on the verified disarmament of Hezbollah and other non-state armed groups. The deal, mediated by the United States, provides no timetable for a pullout and tasks the Lebanese army with asserting state control over the south. Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem immediately declared the accord “null and void” and a “humiliation,” vowing to continue fighting until Israeli forces leave. Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally, warned it would not be implemented, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the pact as a “major blow to Iran” and a step toward broader peace.

The agreement collides with a separate US-Iran ceasefire deal signed earlier in June, which called for an immediate cessation of hostilities on all fronts and respect for Lebanon’s territorial integrity. Viewed from Tehran, that language requires a full Israeli withdrawal. The contradiction, according to US, Israeli and Lebanese officials cited by Axios, reflects a deliberate decoupling of the two tracks by Washington. A US-Iran deconfliction cell on Lebanon, agreed in Switzerland, alarmed both Israeli and Lebanese negotiators, who saw it as legitimising Iranian influence. That shock accelerated the Israel-Lebanon talks, with both sides seeking to keep Iran out of the process, even as the US simultaneously gave Tehran a consultative role in the broader ceasefire.

Analysts in Beirut and London describe the framework as structurally flawed because it hinges on a condition Hezbollah has flatly rejected and which the Lebanese state cannot enforce. The Lebanese army is neither equipped nor politically positioned to disarm a group that is deeply embedded in the country’s sectarian power-sharing system. Michael Young, a Beirut-based analyst, said the deal “creates a structure that allows the Israelis to remain indefinitely.” Fawaz Gerges of the London School of Economics called it “born dead,” arguing that Israel has already consolidated a buffer zone five to six miles deep and that the terms risk giving that presence diplomatic legitimacy. Israeli officials privately acknowledge little faith in Lebanon’s capacity to disarm Hezbollah but view the agreement as a vital diplomatic step toward long-term peace.

The conflict reignited on 2 March when Hezbollah attacked northern Israel in solidarity with Iran after US-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Israel’s subsequent ground and air campaign has killed more than 4,250 people in Lebanon and displaced a million. The new accord is the first between the two countries since 1983, but previous pacts collapsed amid internal Lebanese opposition. The Lebanese government, wary of Tehran’s influence, has sought to neutralise Hezbollah since the 2024 war, yet the group retains significant military capacity. US Central Command’s Admiral Brad Cooper is in Beirut to discuss implementation with President Joseph Aoun and army commanders, while Hezbollah supporters have already blocked roads in protest. The dossier remains open, with no agreed mechanism to bridge the gap between the disarmament condition and the reality of Hezbollah’s entrenched position.