Iran has begun talks with Japanese refiners to resume crude sales, the first such outreach since Tokyo halted purchases in 2019. The move follows a US Treasury license issued on 22 June that temporarily permits transactions involving Iranian oil until 21 August, part of a 60-day peace dialogue between Washington and Tehran. Three Japanese buyers are examining possible purchases, but no deals have been concluded and the window is narrow.

The waiver is linked to a memorandum under which Iran committed to safe passage for commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, while the US lifted its naval blockade of Iranian ports. Yet the waterway remains dangerous: a container ship was attacked by Iranian forces last week, the Revolutionary Guards demand prior clearance for all transits, and the UN estimates 80 floating mines are still present. Japanese officials say any tanker voyage would require insurance and safety guarantees that are currently unavailable. Given the shipping time from the Gulf, a deal would almost certainly need an extension of the waiver beyond August.

For Iran, the overture is an attempt to diversify buyers after a steep drop in deliveries to China, its main customer. Iranian crude shipments to China fell to 1.1 million barrels per day in June, a 17-month low, as Chinese independent refiners cut runs and overall imports slumped. Tehran has resumed discounts of $0.50–$1 per barrel and is drawing down floating storage, which has shrunk from 130 million barrels to 79 million. Total Iranian exports, which averaged 1.6 million barrels per day last year, have collapsed to an estimated 120,000–260,000 barrels per day to foreign markets, though some data put June loadings at 640,000 barrels per day after the blockade eased.

The Iranian initiative coincides with a broader recovery in Gulf exports. Combined shipments from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran rose by over 3.5 million barrels per day in June to 10.07 million barrels per day, led by the UAE releasing stranded cargoes. This has helped return oil prices to pre-crisis levels. The next milestone is 21 August, when the US waiver expires. Whether Washington extends it, and whether Tehran and Tokyo can resolve the insurance and security obstacles, will determine if this diplomatic opening yields actual crude flows.