Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed to a near-standstill on Thursday, with tracking data from Kpler and MarineTraffic showing as few as two tankers crossing in the early hours and only six commodity carriers by mid-afternoon. The southern Omani route, used in recent weeks by vessels not linked to Iran, was entirely avoided, while many ships switched off their automatic identification systems. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy stated that US airstrikes and intervention to redirect maritime traffic had disrupted a gradual reopening that had restored capacity to roughly 50 percent of pre-war levels, and warned that further American action would trigger a “crushing response.”

Viewed from Washington, the renewed military campaign is intended to degrade Iran’s ability to target commercial shipping. President Donald Trump declared the three-week ceasefire over on Wednesday, and a US official told Axios that strikes would continue until Tehran ceases attacks on vessels, describing the operation as a “small lesson.” The US Central Command said it struck 170 targets over two days, including air-defence systems, coastal surveillance assets, missile and drone storage sites, and IRGC fast-attack craft. In retaliation, Iran’s armed forces launched coordinated drone and missile strikes against US military infrastructure in Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain, and fired ten ballistic missiles at the Azraq base in Jordan, eight of which were intercepted, according to Jordanian authorities.

The paralysis of the waterway has immediate economic and humanitarian consequences. Brent crude prices surged more than seven percent to above $79 a barrel, and equity indices in Europe, Asia, and Brazil fell. Some war-risk insurers have advised shipowners to suspend transits, while the head of the International Maritime Organization urged operators not to expose the roughly 6,000 seafarers still stranded in the Gulf to unnecessary danger. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar are working to bring Washington and Tehran back to negotiations, but analysts at BRS shipbrokers and Lloyd’s List expect prolonged volatility, noting that a tentative 60-day agreement with few guarantees was unlikely to fundamentally alter shipping decisions.

Before the conflict erupted on 28 February with US and Israeli strikes on Iran, the strait handled about one-fifth of global oil trade, with 125 to 140 vessels crossing daily. Traffic had partially recovered during the June truce to around 40 crossings per day, but the latest escalation—triggered by attacks on three tankers, including a Qatari LNG carrier—has reversed those gains. The IRGC insists that any vessel transiting must obtain its clearance and adhere to security protocols, while the US maintains that freedom of navigation must be restored. With no formal closure declared but de facto traffic at a minimum, the dossier now hinges on whether the Pakistani-Qatari mediation can secure a new pause, and on the conditions each side sets for de-escalation.