China this week conducted its first-ever test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile from a nuclear-powered submarine into the Pacific Ocean, a move that Taiwan’s early-warning radar system detected and tracked in real time, according to security officials in Taipei. The AN/FPS-115 Pave Paws radar, located at the Leshan station in Hsinchu county, identified the launch from waters near the mainland’s southern coast and shared intelligence with Washington, Taiwanese officials said. The test, which Beijing described as routine training, was the third long-range missile flight across the Pacific since 1980 and the first from a nuclear submarine, marking what Chinese state media called a step toward a complete nuclear triad.

Days later, Taiwan’s coast guard hosted a group of foreign lawmakers on a patrol around the Kinmen islands, a move that Taipei said was designed to draw international attention to China’s expanding maritime law enforcement operations in the Taiwan Strait. The Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC) delegation, which included legislators from Britain, Ukraine, India, the Czech Republic and New Zealand, sailed on a 100-tonne patrol vessel without visible weapons. A former British security minister, Tom Tugendhat, stated that the presence in waters claimed by Beijing was “an important show of support for Taiwan” and the rules-based international system. Taiwan’s Ocean Affairs Council said the trip aimed to help the international community understand the pressure the island faces from China’s coast guard, which has conducted regular patrols near Kinmen and off Taiwan’s east coast since last month.

Viewed from Washington and allied capitals, the two events illustrate the accelerating pace of China’s military modernisation and its willingness to project power farther into the Pacific. According to the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, Beijing has tripled the size of its nuclear arsenal to over 600 warheads in six years, and the Pentagon projects it will surpass 1,000 by 2030. Analysts in Australia note that the JL-3 missile, which Chinese state media experts identified as the likely weapon tested, has an estimated range of 10,000 kilometres, placing northern Australia within reach. Jennifer Parker of the University of Western Australia’s Defence and Security Institute said the launch was a public declaration that China had achieved a continuous at-sea nuclear deterrent, a capability that transforms its strategic posture.

The missile test and the coast guard patrol occur against a backdrop of deepening US-Taiwan intelligence cooperation, with the $1.4 billion Pave Paws radar serving as a cornerstone of early warning. Taiwanese National Security Council Secretary-General Joseph Wu assessed the missile as likely a JL-2 or JL-3 model. While China’s defence ministry has not confirmed the missile type, state media quoted experts asserting that the People’s Liberation Army Navy can now conduct “stable and reliable strategic counterattacks from any point in the vast open seas of the Pacific.” Taiwan’s government has signalled it will continue to invite foreign legislators to observe frontline conditions, and further Chinese missile tests are expected as Beijing diversifies its delivery systems. The US and its allies are monitoring the situation, with no immediate change in force posture announced.