European powers are advancing plans to replace the expiring UN peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon with an EU-mandated force, as Israel consolidates its military hold on a buffer zone and diplomatic talks in Rome enter a sixth round. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul called for a European mandate to avert a security vacuum when UNIFIL’s mandate ends on 31 December 2026, arguing it could create conditions for an Israeli withdrawal “without Hezbollah returning with its terror.” Concurrently, an Italian initiative reported by Israeli media envisages deploying Italian troops to supervise disarmament and prevent Hezbollah’s return, after Israel and Washington rejected entrusting the task to UN forces. The proposals come as the Israeli army has begun establishing permanent military bases inside southern Lebanon, according to the newspaper Maariv, and controls more than 600 square kilometres of territory following its March incursion.

Israeli officials have signalled an open-ended presence. Energy Minister Eli Cohen stated that a memorandum with Lebanon is “explicitly based on us staying inside Lebanon for years to come” to defend residents of the north. Defence Minister Israel Katz declared Israel did not need permission to enter or remain. The Israeli military is positioned in a buffer zone roughly 10 kilometres deep along the entire border. In parallel, a US-brokered framework agreement signed last month with the Lebanese government designates two pilot zones where the Lebanese army would assume security responsibilities after an Israeli redeployment or withdrawal. The Lebanese delegation in Rome has insisted that the Lebanese army is the sole competent authority to control these areas and monitor security arrangements. Hezbollah, which was not party to the agreement, has vowed to oppose it, and according to regional analysts, believes only Iranian pressure on Washington can secure an end to the war and an Israeli pullout.

The European push reflects concern that a vacuum could entrench a long-term Israeli occupation reminiscent of the 1982–2000 presence. Former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak, who ordered the 2000 withdrawal, warned that the current security zone risks repeating past failures: rudimentary rockets bypassed the zone in the 1990s, and the deployment became self-perpetuating. “Our very presence will become the only goal,” Barak said, adding that destroying Hezbollah would require conquering all of Lebanon. Viewed from European capitals, the stabilising Lebanese government represents an opportunity to support a political track. From Tehran, however, the conflict is tied to broader US-Iranian dynamics; Iran demanded an end to the Lebanon war as part of its interim deal with Washington, but that agreement has been shaken by renewed hostilities in the Gulf.

The diplomatic dossier remains fluid. The Rome talks, held at ambassador level at the US embassy, have yielded low expectations for swift progress. The UN Security Council had previously decided to end UNIFIL’s mission and hand responsibility to the Lebanese army, but the nature and mandate of any successor force are still under discussion among European states and concerned parties. France and Italy have previously voiced support for a new European mission. No final decision has been taken on the Italian initiative, and the pilot-zone model has yet to be implemented. Israeli warplanes carried out strikes in southern Lebanon after the latest round of negotiations, underscoring the gap between diplomatic efforts and military realities on the ground.